Giants vs. Commanders Prediction, NFL Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:15 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Jayden Daniels is back, and he's walking into a rough spot. Washington (1-3) hosts the Giants (3-1) on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1:00 PM ET at Northwest Stadium in Landover, on FOX. Daniels missed two games with a dislocated left elbow, practiced fully all week and will play in a brace. His top target, Stefon Diggs, is out with a hamstring injury. Terry McLaurin has one too, sat out last week, and is questionable and a game-time decision. Rain is in the Landover forecast from the morning on, and the hourly forecast puts the chance of rain at 77% to 80% through the first half and around 70% after that, with an east wind of 12 to 14 mph and gusts in the 20s that ease as the afternoon goes on. Jameis Winston starts for New York with Jaxson Dart on injured reserve.

Washington is a 3.5-point favorite (-110). The total tells you more. It was 48.5 on the look-ahead line before Week 4, came back at 43.5 at one book after it, and now sits at 41.5, with 62% of bets and 68% of the money on the Under. I don't think the market is wrong. The Giants average 283.3 yards a game and gained 182, 238 and 319 in the three games Winston has played. Washington averages 314.8, and Daniels has thrown for 5.1 yards an attempt. Both picks need the same thing, a wet game where neither team moves the ball through the air. Inactives weren't out when we checked. If Daniels is a surprise scratch, skip the second pick.

Giants vs. Commanders Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 41.5 (-106)
• Pick #2: Jayden Daniels Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-112)

PICK #1: Under 41.5 (-106)

Start with what the Giants are under Winston: a running team. They ran 33 times and threw 22 in the 12-7 win over Tennessee, then ran 28 times against 29 passes while beating Arizona 36-24. Cam Skattebo carried 20 and 18 times in those games. Don't let the 36 fool you. New York gained 319 yards that day, took the ball away three times and got its last six points on an interception return as time expired. Winston's other two outings produced 6 and 12 points.

The defense has done its part. It gives up 19.8 points and 205.3 passing yards a game, and three of its four opponents finished with 181 passing yards or fewer.

Washington's scoring line reads 22, 20, 33 and 13, and the 33 is as misleading as the Giants' 36: it came on 258 yards against Seattle, with a defensive touchdown and three Seahawks turnovers. In his one full game Daniels completed 18 of 34 for 164 yards. Now he plays in the rain without Diggs, who leads the team in targets (31), catches (18) and receiving yards (170).

So why is this only -106, an implied 51.5%? Because Washington's defense has been a mess. It allows 30.5 points a game, and all four Commanders games have gone over this number (46, 57, 64 and 43 points). Safeties Percy Butler, Tyler Owens and Nick Cross, cornerback Trey Amos and end Charles Omenihu are all out. The Giants have their own holes, with Brian Burns on injured reserve and Chauncey Golston and safety Jason Pinnock out. Winston has also thrown three interceptions in three games, and short fields off turnovers are exactly how a slow game creeps to 42. I'll still take it. A 24-17 final stays under.

PICK #2: Jayden Daniels Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-112)

No Washington quarterback has thrown for more than 186 yards in a game this season. Athan Kaliakmanis had 186 against the Colts, Marcus Mariota had 183 against Seattle, and Daniels managed 164 on 34 attempts at Philadelphia in Week 1, a game Washington trailed from the second quarter on. He had 96 yards on 17 attempts at Dallas in Week 2 before the elbow went. Add it up and it's 260 yards on 51 throws, 5.1 apiece. At that rate he'd need about 38 attempts to reach 192, and a home favorite in the rain has no reason to throw 38 times.

Then there are the receivers. Diggs is out. McLaurin, who has 10 catches for 141 yards in three games, may or may not go on the hamstring that cost him last week. After them it's rookie Antonio Williams (12 catches, 124 yards), Dyami Brown and Treylon Burks. The Giants held Dallas to 175 passing yards, Tennessee to 181 and Arizona to 147. Daniels also runs, 31 and 69 yards in his two games, and yards he gains on the ground don't count toward this number.

The -112 price works out to a 52.8% implied chance. Three things could beat it. The Giants' pass rush is thinner without Burns and Golston. The Rams threw for 318 on this defense in Week 2. And a healthy McLaurin changes the picture. If he's inactive, expect this line to drop.

Both bets cash in the same game: rain, a lot of handoffs and a Washington passing attack short on receivers.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.