Game 4 World Series Best Bet, Best Prop & +289 SGP
Game Three on Tuesday night was a dinger fest by the Phillies, hitting 5 in their 7-0 win. It brings their total to 22 homers in their 14 post season games. Impressive, but not overly surprising given homers is what the Phillies line up is built for. Can the Phillies keep this form up heading into Game 4? Here’s our Best Bet, Best Prop and Same Game Parlay for the game.
Probable pitchers for the game are the Astros right-hander Cristian Javier, and the Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola.
Even though the Phillies dominated last night and head into this with a 2-1 lead in the series, the books have the Astroes as the favourites at the time of writing. A few important insights highlight to us as to why this is. Firstly, this away defeat was an anomaly for the Astros. They were 7-0 when playing away this post season. Secondly, Aaron Nola is at the mound for the Phillies this time around. Nola allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings in Game 1. Lucky for him, the offense bailed him out and the Phillies got the win. Further to this, he’s normally a pitcher that needs more rest than a four day break. He's 3-7 with a 3.79 ERA this season on four day's rest. With five or six day's rest he's much better and is 8-6 with a 2.85 ERA.
We’re taking the Astros juggernaut to bounce back here. Our algorithm is seeing a 3.5% +EV Edge on the -1.5 Runline, but we’re taking them at the Moneyline for the additional insurance.
Pick: Astros Moneyline
The Dominican Cristian Javier has a big job on his hands with the mighty Astros staring down possible 1-3 start to the series. We think the Dominican pitcher is the man for the job though.
His fastball is almost, if not, the best in baseball, and is just what is needed to provide a mix up to the home run hitting Phillies. He tends to confuse batters facing him for the first time, and they struggle to score. He allowed just a single in 5 and bit innings in his start 11 days ago, and has struck out 13 batters per nine innings in his postseason career.
Pick: Cristian Javier 7+ Strikeouts
Same Game Parlay - +289 with FanDuel
Leg 1: Astros Moneyline
Leg 2: Cristian Javier 7+ Strikeouts
Best Odds at the time of writing are with FanDuel.