French Open Men's Singles Final 2024 - Best Picks

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by OddsCrowd Analysts

It will be a battle between first-time French Open finalists when Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev battle for the title on Sunday afternoon. 

Of course, both players have been on this kind of stage previously in their careers. Alcaraz is already a two-time Grand Slam champion, having triumphed at the U.S. Open in 2022 and Wimbledon in 2023. Zverev is playing in his second slam final, losing to Dominic Thiem in a five-set thriller at the 2020 U.S. Open.

Is it Zverev’s time to get over the hump at a major, or will Alcaraz lift a third major trophy at a third different location? Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for Sunday at Roland Garros. 

French Open Final Predictions 

Pick #1 – Alexander Zverev +5.5 games (-126) 

Pick #2 – Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Over 37.5 games (-110) 

Pick #3 – Alexander Zverev to hit the most double-faults (-110) 

French Open Final Predictions: Alexander Zverev +5.5 games (-126) 

Zverev has every reason to be competitive on Sunday. First, he has been among the best players throughout this entire clay-court swing. His runup to the French Open included a title at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome and his run in Paris features victories over 14-time champion Rafael Nadal, world No. 13 Holger Rune and two-time runner-up Casper Ruud. Second, this is a decent matchup for Zverev. The German leads the head-to-head series with Alcaraz 5-4, including 2-1 at Grand Slams and 1-0 at Roland Garros (a four-set win in the 2022 quarterfinals). 

Finally, Zverev beat Ruud in four mostly routine sets on Friday whereas Alcaraz battled through a five-set thriller against Jannik Sinner. The underdog is fresh and ready to give Alcaraz a run for his money.  

French Open Final Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Over 37.5 games (-110) 

As mentioned above, Zverev should be able to be competitive with Alcaraz – if not even win the match outright. As such, a relatively long contest should be expected. That would be nothing new for Zverev, either, as two of his matches this fortnight have required five sets (in the third round against Tallon Griekspoor and in the fourth round against Holger Rune). 

Moreover, Alcaraz and Zverev faced each other earlier this year at the Australian Open and their four-set match (won by Zverev) finished with 39 games played. Their 2022 French Open quarterfinal was also won by Zverev in four sets and it featured 43 games. Finally, two of their last three head-to-head encounters have gone the distance to a deciding set. This one has the makings of a four-setter at least and perhaps even five; in either case, all signs point to the game total going over. 

French Open Final Predictions: Alexander Zverev to hit the most double-faults (-110) 

With Zverev priced as just a slight favorite to hit more double-faults than Alcaraz (the Spaniard is +135 and a tie is +550), the value is outstanding on this prop. Through six rounds in Paris the world No. 7 has struck 23 double-faults compared to Alcaraz’s 16. It’s also worth noting that the aces count is 64 to 22 in Zverev’s favor; he simply goes for a lot more on his serve – and higher risk naturally leads to more mistakes.

In nine head-to-head matches, Zverev has double-faulted 28 times compared to Alcaraz’s 13. The pressure of a Grand Slam final cannot be underestimated, as well. In Zverev’s only previous slam final, he tossed in a ridiculous 15 double-faults. Alcaraz has double-faulted just 10 times in 10 total sets across two slam final appearances. 

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