Falcons vs. Saints Prediction, NFL Week 4 MNF Odds & Best Bets (10/5)

Fact checked at 7:46 AM ET, Oct 5, 2026

Odds as of Oct 5, 6:42 AM ET

Two 1-2 teams, each with a game in hand on the rest of the league, meet in New Orleans' first division game of the year. The Falcons lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh and 34-3 to Carolina without Michael Penix Jr. (Cooper Rush started both, and Jack Strand took over during the Carolina game). Then Penix came back from knee surgery on Sep 24 and Atlanta beat Green Bay 35-14. He's the expected starter tonight, and no quarterback is on Atlanta's final report.

The Saints lost 31-30 in overtime at Detroit, beat Baltimore 24-17 and lost 35-27 to Las Vegas, with Tyler Shough throwing 56, 34 and 42 passes. They put running back Travis Etienne on injured reserve this week. Linebacker Kaden Elliss and edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings are out, and linebacker Pete Werner and tight end Noah Fant are questionable. Those are Saturday's final statuses and nothing changed this morning. Inactives come about 90 minutes before kickoff.

The consensus line is Saints -1.5 (-115) with a total of 47.5 (Over -111, Under -108). It opened Saints -2.5 and 45.5. Kickoff is Monday, Oct. 5 at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN, in the Superdome, so weather is not a factor.

Both of our picks are on the Saints' passing game. We looked at Atlanta's ground game too and passed on a Bijan Robinson rushing prop. He ran for 194 yards at Green Bay, but he had 83 and 72 in his other two games, and one big night isn't enough to bet a number in the high 80s.

Falcons vs. Saints Predictions

• Pick #1: Chris Olave Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Juwan Johnson Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

PICK #1: Chris Olave Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

New Orleans throws 44 times a game and Olave gets the biggest cut of it. He has cleared this number all three weeks, though once by only half a yard.

The lines: 10 catches for 182 yards against Detroit, 8 for 86 against Baltimore, 9 for 107 against Las Vegas. That came on 13, 10 and 13 targets while he played 84% to 86% of the snaps, and his share of the team's targets ran from 25% to 33%. Shough has been the quarterback every week, so those games describe tonight's role. He's throwing for 305.7 yards a game and completing 68.9% of his passes. With Etienne on injured reserve and receiver Jordyn Tyson also on it, the target pool behind Olave is thin.

The matchup helps. Atlanta has allowed 263.0 net passing yards a game, 30th of 32, against Pittsburgh, Carolina and Green Bay. Carolina's Tetairoa McMillan had 101 yards against the Falcons on 10 targets, and Green Bay's Matthew Golden and Christian Watson had 100 and 96. Cornerback A.J. Terrell left the Carolina game and is on injured reserve with a groin injury, so C.J. Henderson plays opposite Mike Hughes.

This isn't a layup. The 182 came in a 56-attempt overtime game, and his other two games average about 97 yards, not far above the number. One of those is the half-yard escape. Atlanta also allows 47.7 rushing yards a game, the fewest in the league, and a Falcons plan built on Robinson's carries (29 at Green Bay) would shorten New Orleans' night. The -110 price implies a 52.4% chance, and we think his target volume gets him past that.

If you'd rather bet the volume directly, Olave Over 6.5 receptions (-139) is the alternative. He has caught eight or more in each game. Johnson's pick below rides the same passing volume, so treat the two as one opinion in two shapes.

PICK #2: Juwan Johnson Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Johnson has 54, 66 and 53 receiving yards, and none of those came within 10 yards of this number. He did it on 7, 4 and 8 targets and caught all eight in Week 3.

He's the starting tight end, with snap shares of 84%, 53% and 62%. Fant played 41%, 44% and 57% of the snaps in the same games, so the logs already include both tight ends. Last week was the closest split, Fant at 57% and Johnson at 62%, and Johnson still had his eight catches. Fant is questionable after limited practices all week. If he sits, rookie Oscar Delp is in line for more work alongside Johnson, so the role holds either way. On the other side, Atlanta's questionable list includes starting linebacker Divine Deablo (hamstring), who has played 82% to 100% of the defensive snaps.

Now the price. The number has risen two yards since Sunday night, and -110 implies 52.4%. Two of his three games came on 7 and 4 targets, and a four-target night can finish short of 43 yards. Atlanta has also been better against tight ends than against wide receivers. No tight end has more than 46 yards against the Falcons in three games (Pittsburgh's Pat Freiermuth had the 46), and Green Bay's Tucker Kraft got 26 on eight targets. We're still on the Over, but this is the thinner of the two picks.

Want a wide receiver instead? Devaughn Vele Over 44.5 (-112) is the alternative, with 69, 64 and 39 yards and targets falling from 9 to 7 to 6. We picked Johnson over Vele because Johnson cleared his number in all three games and Vele cleared his in two. If Fant is out or Johnson is inactive when the lists come out around 6:45 PM ET, check the number again.

Olave and Johnson both win in a high-volume Saints game. Their targets compete a little (Olave takes 25% to 33% of the team's, Johnson about 13% to 20%), so a game that spreads the ball can cost one of the two, and a turnover-heavy or lopsided Saints game can cost both.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.