Falcons vs Commanders NFL Week 17 SNF picks
The Atlanta Falcons and the Washington Commanders will meet just outside of Washington, D.C. in a fascinating NFC matchup on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff at Northwest Stadium is set for 8:20 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on NBC. This contest features a Falcons team looking to take a massive step forward in their pursuit of a division title while the Commanders are hoping to clinch a playoff berth with a victory.
With both teams looking to make a statement on this big primetime stage, let’s dive into our expert’s Falcons vs Commanders predictions and best bets for this Sunday Night Football showdown.
Falcons vs Commanders Predictions
Pick #1 - Atlanta Falcons +4 (-110) vs Washington Commanders
Pick #2 - Under 47.5 Total Points (-110)
Pick #3 - Bijan Robinson Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
PICK #1: Falcons +4 (-110) vs Commanders
The Falcons' fortunes might have changed for the better with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. under center. The rookie never looked rattled against the Giants a week ago, as he went 18-of-27 for 205 yards last Sunday, which included four dropped passes by his receivers and an interception that clearly wasn’t his fault. It was a great sign for a Falcons team that needed an emotional boost, as Penix’s arm strength was visibly different from his predecessor, and he was unafraid to push the ball downfield.
On the other side, Jayden Daniels has been amazing in his rookie season, and hope has been restored for the Commanders. However, better offenses have consistently put up points against Washington this season. While the Falcons likely aren’t “elite” now with Penix, they surely looked better than with Kirk Cousins under center. Additionally, the Atlanta defense has also played much better lately, racking up 16 sacks and holding opposing offenses to just 281 rushing yards over their past four games, which bodes well for this week.
Finally, Washington is coming off a massive, emotional victory in the division against the Eagles, which puts them in a dangerous spot this week. We’ll take Atlanta with the points.
PICK #2: Under 47.5 Total Points (-110)
The market tells us this game is more likely to be a high-scoring affair, but we don’t agree with that assessment. On one side, the Commanders are fourth in sack percentage, sixth in opponent completion percentage and fourth in opponent passing yards per game. Washington’s defense isn’t nearly as capable against the run (29th in opponent yards per rush and 30th in opponent rush yards per game), which should give the Falcons a chance to play ball control and keep away from Daniels.
On the other side, Washington is a legitimate top-10 offense, but Atlanta’s defense is better than most might think, particularly in the red zone. The Falcons are ninth in opponent yards per rush and pass this season, a pair of metrics that describe a true bend-don’t-break defense. After Daniels’ terrific performance last Sunday, slowing down the Commanders offense will be what’s emphasized most during Atlanta’s week of prep, especially with the need to protect Penix on the other side. Given that this has the feel of a playoff game, this total is just a tad too high on Sunday.
PICK #3: Bijan Robinson Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
This is a play entirely predicated around the game script for this game, which we think will be favorable to the Falcons. Atlanta may get out to an early lead on the road, and the Falcons offensive staff leans into giving Bijan Robinson a ton of workload out of the backfield to take some pressure off their rookie quarterback.
Robinson has cleared this number in four straight games and eight games overall for the season, and given the struggles that Atlanta could have in the passing game on Sunday, this feels like an important spot for Robinson to shine.
