Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction, NFL Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (11/1)

Fact checked at 8:20 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

Odds as of 7:28 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

The Falcons (3-4) visit the Buccaneers (2-5) at Raymond James Stadium for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff on Fox, and a win would put Atlanta alone atop the NFC South. We expect a wet, close game without many points. Rain should be around for kickoff, both defenses stop the run, Tampa Bay wants to run anyway, and Michael Penix Jr. doesn't give the ball away. So we're on the Under, Baker Mayfield staying under two touchdown passes and Penix finishing without an interception.

Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point favorite (-107). Each of the last six meetings was decided by six points or fewer.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 43.5 (-112)
• Pick #2: Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-141)
• Pick #3: Michael Penix Jr. Under 0.5 Interceptions (-122)

PICK #1: Under 43.5 (-112)

Start with the weather. The National Weather Service has showers and possible thunderstorms through the first half, a 60% chance of rain, an east wind near 12 mph and gusts to 20, with a quarter to half an inch of rain possible.

Neither run game gets an easy day in that. Tampa Bay allows 77.3 rushing yards a game, second-fewest in the league, and Atlanta allows 88.9, fourth-fewest. The Bucs have given up 19 points a game over their last five and no more than 26 in any of them, and three of their four home games stayed under this number, at 42, 39 and 31 total points. They also ran 49 times for 258 yards in the 43-13 win at Carolina, and long drives keep the ball away from Penix.

The price implies 52.8%, and Atlanta's offense is the risk. All five of Penix's starts have gone over 43.5, with the Falcons averaging 31 points, and these teams' last meeting finished 29-28. Seven games is a small record for either defense. The total has also come down from the mid-40s since books posted it after last week's games, so some of the weather may already be in the price.

PICK #2: Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-141)

Tampa Bay hasn't thrown two touchdown passes in any game this season, whether Mayfield or Jalon Daniels started. Mayfield has 0, 1, 1 and 1 in his four starts, and three of those came on 28 to 34 attempts, so more throws haven't automatically meant a second score.

"I think that's our calling card," coach Todd Bowles said of the run game. "We play a lot better when we run the ball very successfully." The Bucs rank third in rushing at 146.4 yards a game and last in passing at 150.4, and rain gives them no reason to change. Emeka Egbuka, who leads the team with 28 catches and has two of its six touchdown catches, is out with a foot injury. Chris Godwin Jr. hasn't caught a touchdown this season.

Four starts isn't much, so we checked the longer record. Mayfield stayed under in 9 of 17 games last season, below the 58.5% this price implies, but he's under in 10 of his last 13 going back through last season. The matchup is what could beat this. He threw three touchdown passes and then two against Atlanta last season, the Falcons rank 29th in passing yards allowed, and linebacker Divine Deablo and nickel back Billy Bowman Jr. are out. Atlanta's run defense should also push Mayfield past the 11 passes he threw at Carolina, which makes those 28-to-34-attempt games the ones that count. He practiced fully all week on his right thumb and has no injury designation.

PICK #3: Michael Penix Jr. Under 0.5 Interceptions (-122)

Penix has nine touchdowns and one interception in five starts. The pick came against Green Bay in his first game back, and he has thrown 119 passes since without another. This goes beyond five games, too: he went without one in seven of his nine games last season, which makes him 11 of 14 across two years against the 55.0% implied here. In a close, wet game, Atlanta shouldn't need him to force anything.

"He's really not giving the ball away," Bowles said. The protection helps. Atlanta has allowed 62 pressures, tied for the fewest in the league, and gave up no sacks against San Francisco.

Tampa Bay is still a dangerous defense for this bet. It has an interception in six of seven games, eight in all, and 10 sacks over its last two after six in its first five. Penix's attempts have climbed to 32, 33 and 34 over his last three starts, and a wet ball doesn't help. Guard Chris Lindstrom missed the last practice for a personal reason and right tackle Jawaan Taylor was limited with a hamstring injury, though neither has a game designation. A pick here would likely come with Atlanta passing from behind, the game we're betting against.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.