Eagles vs. Jaguars Prediction, NFL Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:16 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Jalen Hurts will start at quarterback for the Eagles (2-2) in London, and not much else about this offense looks the way it did in September. He showed up on Friday's injury report with a calf issue, practiced fully and carries no game designation. Around him: right tackle Lane Johnson retired on Tuesday, Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore on Wednesday, left guard Landon Dickerson is on injured reserve and center Drew Kendall is out with a knee injury. The expected line has rookie Markel Bell at right tackle, Willie Lampkin at left guard and Jake Majors, signed to the roster on Friday, at center. Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are out with hamstring injuries, Hollywood Brown is out with an ankle injury and Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve, which leaves Will Shipley as the expected lead back. Tight end Dallas Goedert and linebacker Zack Baun do return. Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard is questionable after missing practice all week, and inactives had not been announced when we checked.

Philadelphia was a small favorite when this game was first posted, before Week 4. Now the Jaguars (3-1), the designated home team at a neutral site, are laying 8, and the total has come down from 44.5 to 41.5. Kickoff is 9:30 AM ET Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on NFL Network. The London forecast is dry, around 58 degrees with light wind, so forget the weather. Jacksonville should win. But that spread has already moved more than a touchdown, and the Jaguars were outgained 437 to 323 in Cincinnati last Sunday. We would rather bet on a low-scoring game that Jacksonville controls with its defense and its running back than lay 8.

Eagles vs. Jaguars Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 41.5 (-111)
• Pick #2: Bhayshul Tuten Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Under 41.5 (-111)

We already got a preview of this Eagles offense last Sunday against the Rams. Johnson and Smith were inactive, and Barkley left after two carries. Philadelphia gained 172 yards and went 0-for-12 on third down. Hurts completed 12 of 27 passes for 93 yards and was sacked four times. The Eagles still scored 20 in a 24-20 loss. Since then they have lost Jurgens and Kendall, who both played every snap that day, and Bigsby, who took 14 of the 27 carries.

Now that group gets a Jacksonville defense that has given up 53 points in four games, 13.25 a game, with eight takeaways and 10 sacks. It allows 74.3 rushing yards a game, a top-three figure. And the Jaguars' own offense is not the kind that runs up a total. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 23, 29, 29 and 23 passes, the offense has gained between 268 and 360 yards, and Jaguars games have ended with 44, 33, 41 and 39 points. Three of the four stayed under 41.5. At -111 the Under carries a 52.6% implied chance, and 58% of the money is on it against 48% of the bets.

This can go wrong in a few ways. Jacksonville's pass defense allows 280.3 net yards a game, 31st in the league, and Joe Burrow threw 54 times for 428 yards against it last Sunday (that game still ended 22-17). Three of the Eagles' four games have gone over 41.5, and their defense gives up 23.25 points a game. Then there is a Jaguars blowout. Their two lopsided wins, 34-10 over Cleveland and 35-6 over New England, landed at 44 and 41, so a few short fields off turnovers could put Jacksonville in the 30s without any help. A 24-13 or 27-13 game stays under. A 31-13 game does not.

PICK #2: Bhayshul Tuten Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Tuten's rushing lines read 66, 65, 73 and 73 yards on 15, 13, 15 and 17 carries. That is three Overs in four games, and the miss was by half a yard in Denver, the one game Jacksonville lost. His snap share has gone 49%, 51%, 48% and 59%, and last Sunday he played 36 snaps to Chris Rodriguez's 15. He has no injury designation.

The Eagles allow 122 rushing yards a game, and opponents have run 32, 29, 35 and 25 times against them. Lead backs have finished with 63, 64, 84 and 80 yards in those games. Jacksonville has run 32, 24, 30 and 27 times, with the low figure coming in the loss. A Jaguars lead keeps the ball in Tuten's hands and the clock moving, which is why he sits next to the Under.

This is not a bargain. The -114 price works out to a 53.3% implied chance, and the margin is thin: Tuten has not topped 73 yards, two of his three Overs cleared by 7.5 yards and the other by half a yard, and Rodriguez takes six to eight carries a game. Baun's return helps the Eagles' front. If Philadelphia hangs around and forces Lawrence to throw, Tuten's carries shrink.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.