Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:54 AM ET

Miami arrives 0-3 and without De'Von Achane, who tore his ACL in the first quarter of last Sunday's 24-10 loss to Kansas City and is done for the season. Minnesota is 3-0, though last week's 23-16 win at Tampa Bay cost it Justin Jefferson in the first quarter, and he is Out on the final injury report. Kyler Murray, back from a concussion, went 15 of 29 for 168 yards in that one. The scoring tells you plenty: Miami has put up 13, 13 and 10, and Minnesota has allowed 22, 3 and 16.

The number has moved with all of it. The Vikings opened -7.5 and now sit at -9.5 (-113), Dolphins +9.5 (-107). The total has dropped from 43.5 to 38.5, Under -110, Over -109. Minnesota is -562 on the moneyline and Miami +414, and that favorite price is far too short to bother with. Kickoff is 4:05 PM ET on FOX at U.S. Bank Stadium, which is indoors. Inactives aren't out yet, and both of these picks need their man in uniform.

Dolphins vs. Vikings Predictions

• Pick #1: Malik Washington Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Malik Willis Over 170.5 Passing Yards (-111)

PICK #1: Malik Washington Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Look at Week 3, because it is the closest thing to what Miami brings Sunday. Caleb Douglas was out, Achane was gone in the first quarter, and Washington drew 10 of Willis's 36 throws, more than anyone on the roster. Chris Bell had 8 and Greg Dulcich 7. Washington turned his into 56 yards.

That makes three straight games over this number: 53 yards on 8 targets, 43 on 5, then 56 on 10. He has led Miami's wide receivers in targets every week. Now Achane's 12 targets from the first three games have nowhere to go, and Douglas is Out again on the final report. Miami has been the underdog in all three games, Willis threw 27, 23 and 36 times, and Sunday's 9.5-point spread puts Miami in the same spot. Minnesota has given up 265.3 passing yards a game to Green Bay, Chicago and Tampa Bay (234.0 after sacks), although 387 of those came from Green Bay in Week 1. You're paying -110, a 52.4% implied chance, for a player who has cleared the line every time out.

Washington carries no injury designation. If he somehow lands on the inactive list, there's no bet.

Minnesota's pass rush is the problem. It leads the league with 14 sacks, and Willis went down five times in Week 1 and four in Week 2. Bell is also climbing, from 2 and 1 targets in the first two weeks to 8 last week. And Week 2 was close, 43 yards against a 40.5 line. Keep in mind that this and Pick #2 lean on the same passing game, so one ugly afternoon from the Miami offense sinks both. If you'd rather come at his role from the other side, Washington Under 4.5 rushing yards (-107) is the alternative, but only if Jaylen Wright is active.

PICK #2: Malik Willis Over 170.5 Passing Yards (-111)

The line sits more than 26 yards below Willis's worst game of the season, and at -111 you're only being asked to believe in a 52.6% implied chance.

He threw for 220 on 27 attempts at Las Vegas, 197 on 23 at San Francisco and 210 on 36 against Kansas City, and nobody else has thrown a pass for Miami. Those three opponents are a combined 9-0. The Kansas City game also came without Douglas and with Achane out of it in the first quarter, so the thin receiving room is already baked into that 210. Miami lost those games by 14, 22 and 14, and it is a 9.5-point underdog again. Minnesota has allowed 265.3 passing yards per game, 234.0 net of sacks. Willis has no injury tag, and no Miami lineman has a game designation; center Aaron Brewer was a full participant Friday.

What can go wrong is the same thing that worries us on Washington: that Minnesota pass rush, 14 sacks and the most in the league. Willis went down five times in Week 1 and four in Week 2. Chicago and Tampa Bay managed only 192 and 217 passing yards against this defense. If the Vikings build a lead, they can lean on the run and Miami's possessions can shrink too. At his Week 3 rate of 5.8 yards per attempt, Willis needs about 30 throws to clear. If he isn't the starter when inactives come out, pass.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.