Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction, NFL Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/25)

Fact checked at 8:56 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Odds as of 8:54 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Miami comes to MetLife Stadium at 0-5 and off its bye, and the offense is the reason: 70 points in five games, 14 a game, tied with Tennessee for the fewest in the league. The Jets are 2-4 after a 26-19 loss at New England, but their defense has held up. It allows 20.33 points a game (tied for fifth-fewest) and 202 passing yards a game, fifth-fewest. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on CBS.

Our pick: the Jets' defense keeps Miami's offense stuck where it has been all season, and New York wins a low-scoring game by a touchdown or so, something like 20-13. Malik Willis practiced fully all week with a right thumb injury on his throwing hand and has no game designation, so he is expected to start for Miami. The Jets get receiver Adonai Mitchell back after four missed games, and running back Breece Hall (quad) is questionable after missing three straight. The forecast for the kickoff window is sunny and in the mid-60s, with almost no wind.

Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions

• Pick #1: Jets -3.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: Under 39.5 (-118)

PICK #1: Jets -3.5 (-115)

Miami has scored more than 13 points once all season, in a 31-24 loss to Cincinnati before the bye. Willis has thrown for 220, 197, 210, 85 and 137 yards from Week 1 on, and the last two were his lowest. Now that offense goes on the road against a defense that ranks fifth against the pass and is tied for fifth in points allowed.

The line opened Jets -2.5 and sat at 4.5 for most of the week before slipping back to 3.5 at most books. We'll take the cheaper number. At -115, the price implies a 53.5% chance that they win by four or more. Mitchell's return helps too. He had nine catches for 123 yards in the first two games before a finger injury, and he joins Garrett Wilson and rookie Omar Cooper Jr., who caught six passes for 103 yards and a touchdown last week.

The Jets' own record is the worry. They have covered 3.5 in only 2 of their 6 games, a 23-10 win at Tennessee and a 17-12 win over Cleveland, and they score just 18.67 points a game (27th). The betting splits lean the other way, with 63% of the spread money on Miami on 54% of the tickets, and the late move came toward the Dolphins. Miami also won both meetings last season, 34-10 at MetLife Stadium and 27-21 in Miami, though neither Willis nor Geno Smith played in them.

PICK #2: Under 39.5 (-118)

Jets games have stayed under 39.5 in 4 of 6, and their last three finished 26-19, 17-12 and 23-12. New York's 18.67 points a game rank 27th. Miami scores 14 a game, tied for the fewest in the league. The total opened at 41.5 and has come down two points.

Miami games have gone under this number in 2 of 5, but its three Overs came from the defense more than the offense: the Dolphins gave up 35 to San Francisco, 31 to Cincinnati and 27 to Las Vegas. This Jets offense is near the bottom of the league in scoring, so that risk is smaller here. The -118 price implies 54.1%. A 20-13 Jets win covers the spread and finishes at 33.

Don't count on the weather to help, since it should be sunny and calm. Both of Miami's wins over the Jets last season went over the total, with other quarterbacks on both sides. Mitchell gives Smith one more target, and Hall could be back in the backfield. A defensive or special-teams score could also push a slow game over a short total.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.