Dolphins vs Bills NFL Week 3 TNF Picks

Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season gets underway with Thursday Night Football and a meaningful AFC East showdown, as the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium.

It’s only September, but this one already feels important. The Bills are off to a hot 2-0 start and just crushed the Jets in a divisional statement win. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are still searching for their first victory after dropping their first two, including a close one against the Patriots last week.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video, with Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on the call. With Buffalo riding high and Miami feeling the pressure, this one should be fast, physical and full of storylines. Let’s break down the matchup — and highlight three of our Dolphins vs Bills best bets to consider heading into TNF.

Dolphins vs Bills NFL Week 3 TNF Predictions

Pick #1: Buffalo Bills -12.5 over Miami Dolphins (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Over 49.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: DeVon Achane anytime touchdown scorer (+130) Click Here to Bet

Pick #1: Bills -12.5 over Dolphins (-110)

The Bills look sharp on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen is dialed in (even with a broken nose) and the defense bounced back nicely after a shaky opener against the Ravens. Playing at home under the Thursday night lights? That only adds fuel to the fire.

For Miami, things haven’t clicked yet. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three interceptions in two games and the offense has struggled to find rhythm. Last week against New England, the Dolphins had trouble protecting Tua and gave up big plays defensively — not a great sign heading into a matchup against a Bills team that’s thriving right now.

The short week, combined with the challenges of playing in front of a rabid Buffalo crowd, makes this a tough spot for the Dolphins. The 12.5-point spread is large, but the Bills have everything working in their favor to cover it.

Pick #2: Over 49.5 (-110)

Even if the Bills control the game early, there’s still real potential for points. Buffalo has scored 71 total points in just two games and Miami’s defense has done little to suggest they can slow the Bills down.

That said, the Dolphins still have explosive weapons. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and DeVon Achane all have big-play ability — and if Miami falls behind, they’ll likely lean heavily on the passing game. That could mean late scores, even if they come in garbage time.

If the tempo stays quick, getting to 50+ points isn’t a stretch, especially with the firepower on both rosters.

Pick #3: DeVon Achane anytime touchdown scorer (+130)

Despite Miami’s early struggles, Achane has been a bright spot. He’s made an impact both on the ground and through the air, racking up 112 receiving yards on 11 catches through two games — and he’s scored in both of them.

Buffalo’s defense plays fast and aggressively, which can sometimes open up opportunities like we saw in Week 1 against Derrick Henry. Whether it’s a screen pass, an outside run, or just a broken play, Achane’s the kind of guy who can take a small window and turn it into six.

At +130 odds, we’re getting decent value on a player who’s already proven he can find the end zone. If Miami puts up any points on Thursday, Achane is a strong candidate to be involved.