Dolphins v Bills: Best Bet, Best Prop & a +353 Parlay

January 15, 2023 by The OddsCrowd Analysts

The Bills take on the Dolphins in the first round of playoffs. The Bills are pretty easy double-digit favourites here. We've taken a deep dive and found our Best Bet, Best Prop and a +353 Same Game Parlay. Let's dive in.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Looking back at the matchups between these two teams in the regular season, on December 17 the Bills just got over the line with a 32-29. Back on September 25 though, it was Miami that got the win 21-19.

This leaves bettors with the question, why is the head start so big for the Dolphins with such close matchups during the regular season? The main reason is that starting QB Tua Tagovailoa has been announced as not playing due to ongoing issues following a concussion a few weeks ago. That means they will be starting with either Teddy Bridgwater (who is struggling with a finger), or Skylar Thompson. An offense led by these guys, is really going to struggle to match a Josh Allen led Bills offense. The Bills are ranked second in both points per game, and yards per game.

The Bills defense is super strong too, ranking second for points per game, and sixth on yards conceded. Our handicapping puts the head start at 15 points. Top performing bettors moggy_doggy (47-38) and Mike Rose (74-60) are picking the Bills at -13.5. The OddsCrowd Algorithm is seeing a 2.5% +EV Edge on the Bills also at 2.5%.

Pick: Bills -13.5

Best Prop

We see multiple stat lines that suggest Josh Allen should be able to easily cover his 260.5 Passing Yard line. He’s recorded over 287 yards in three of his last post season games. He remains undefeated at home against Miami at 5-0. The Bills are averaging 32.6 points per game against Miami with him as the starter. Also, with what we expect to be a lack of scoring pressure from Miami with their weakened Tua-less offence, we think Allen will be given the license to pass.

Pick: Josh Allen Over 260.5 Yards