Cubs vs. Padres Prediction, MLB Wild Card Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (9/29)

Fact checked at 7:05 AM ET, Sep 29, 2026

Odds as of Sep 29, 5:12 AM ET

A year after the Cubs knocked San Diego out of the Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field, the rematch opens in San Diego. The Padres (91-71) are the National League's No. 4 seed and host every game of the best-of-three; the Cubs (89-73) are the No. 5 seed. Chicago led the majors with 850 runs and finished +147 in run differential, then went 5-5 over its last 10. San Diego went 8-2 over its last 10 and 51-30 at Petco Park.

The pitching matchup is set. Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA over 185 innings) starts for San Diego, and the Cubs announced Monday that Matthew Boyd (10-5, 3.91 ERA over 126 2/3 innings) gets the ball for them. Boyd held the Padres to one run in 4 1/3 innings in last year's Game 1. Kevin Gausman, the other candidate, isn't starting; his non-throwing left shoulder is trending well but isn't fully cleared, and Craig Counsell says he will pitch in the series. How long Boyd goes is anyone's guess. Counsell calls every pitcher an "out-getter" and says the labels starter and reliever don't matter in a two-out-of-three series. Neither club has posted a lineup, and Counsell hasn't decided whether Alex Bregman plays third base or stays at designated hitter; MLB.com's projected lineup has him at DH with Pedro Ramírez at third.

The consensus moneyline is Padres -125 and Cubs +106; the Cubs opened at +105 at DraftKings. The total opened at 7.5 and is now 7 (Over -125, Under -100), though BetMGM, FanDuel and bet365 still show 7.5. On the run line, San Diego -1.5 is +170 and Chicago +1.5 is -208.

First pitch is Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET at Petco Park, on Peacock and NBCSN. The National Weather Service hourly forecast for Petco has the low 70s at first pitch, a light south wind and no rain.

Cubs vs. Padres Predictions

• Pick #1: Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (-107)
• Pick #2: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-144)
• Pick #3: Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits (-166)

PICK #1: Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (-107)

One hit in his last five starts. Swanson went 1-for-18 with two walks over 20 plate appearances from Sep 22 through Sunday, and the lone hit was a two-RBI single on Sep 23. He was hitless on Sep 22, Sep 24, Sep 25 (Game 1 of the doubleheader at Boston) and Sep 27. He batted eighth or ninth every time, with three to five trips a game, and that is the other half of the case: the bottom of the order is where the plate appearances run out first. He came back on Sep 18 from a left oblique injury that cost him a month. The Under is -107, which implies 51.7%, and the books lean the other way: his Over is -124.

Alex Bregman's return from facial fractures on Sep 25 didn't bump Swanson up the order. He hit eighth or ninth before and after, and MLB.com's projected Game 1 lineup has him ninth against King. King is a tough draw for a slumping hitter: opponents hit .221 against him with a 1.18 WHIP. Whatever is left after King goes to a rested back end: Mason Miller (38 saves, 1.67 ERA), Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez all last pitched Saturday, because Randy Vásquez and Griffin Canning covered all nine innings of Sunday's finale.

Five games is a short run for a veteran shortstop, and no lineup is posted. If Swanson sits, the bet is usually voided (check your book's rules), and if he moves up, he gets an extra trip. Suzuki's Over below comes from the other end of the same lineup. A night where the top of the order reaches King once and the bottom stays quiet pays both.

PICK #2: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-144)

Tatis has cleared this number in four of his last five starts, and he doesn't need a rally to get there. By game, hits plus runs plus RBIs: 2 on Sep 26, 2 on Sep 25, 3 on Sep 24, 4 on Sep 23 (a three-hit night in Los Angeles) and 1 on Sep 22. Twelve in all, on eight hits in 19 at-bats, leading off every time with three to five plate appearances a game, and the projected lineup has him leading off again. He sat Sunday with the seeding settled, so he's rested. He was homerless into late May, then hit 20 of his 25 home runs after the All-Star break.

Leading off matters for a combined stat like this. Nobody on the team gets more plate appearances, and when he reaches, Manny Machado (30 homers) and Ty France (.295) are the ones expected to bring him around. At -144 the break-even is 59.0%, which is a real price for a hitter at this pace rather than a bargain.

What could go wrong starts on the mound. Boyd is a left-hander who held San Diego to one run over 4 1/3 innings in last year's Game 1 and pitched to a 3.91 ERA this season, and the lineup isn't posted. Chicago also played the best defense in baseball this season by Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, and a hitter who needs two things to go right is the one a great defense hurts most. The total has dropped from 7.5 to 7, so the market expects runs to be scarce, and this Over needs San Diego to score. If you'd rather isolate the bat, his Over 1.5 total bases is +100.

PICK #3: Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits (-166)

Batting second, Suzuki should see King at least twice before the bullpen takes over, and he has hit safely in four of his last five starts from that spot. Two hits Sep 22, one Sep 23, two Sep 24, none in Game 1 at Boston on Sep 25 and two in Game 2 that day: 7-for-20, with a walk in three of the five and four to six plate appearances a game. He sat Sunday's finale for a routine day off, so the regular No. 2 hitter goes in fresh. The season line is .270/.368/.473 with 26 home runs in 634 plate appearances, and the projected lineup has him second again.

Bregman's return hasn't touched him. On Sep 25, with Bregman back, Suzuki still hit second.

Then there's the price. -166 is a 62.4% number, so one 0-for-4 costs more than a win pays, and King's .221 opponents' average says those nights happen. The order isn't out yet, so the No. 2 spot is still an assumption, and Bregman's position is still undecided. We also looked at Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118), which stayed under in all five of his last starts, but one of those five was Sunday's finale, when he was lifted after one at-bat in a planned cameo for his 162nd game. Suzuki's five were all full games, so he got the spot and the Crow-Armstrong Under is the backup play. On the pitching side, Matthew Boyd Over 13.5 Outs (-118) cleared in each of his last five starts (21, 15, 16, 21 and 16 outs), but Counsell hasn't said how long Boyd goes, so that one stays off the card.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.