Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

October 4, 2026 by OddsCrowd Analysts

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:42 AM ET

Houston is 0-3, Dallas is 1-2, and the Texans' season already seems to hang on one hamstring. They lost to Buffalo 36-31, to Cincinnati 20-6 and at Indianapolis 19-17. The 31 came in the opener, the only game wide receiver Nico Collins played. Without him the offense averaged 11.5 points. Collins practiced fully Friday and carries no game status on the final injury report, and right guard Ed Ingram, listed questionable after his own full practice Friday, is expected back after missing two games. Dallas comes in off a 34-31 loss to Baltimore at a neutral site in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday. The Cowboys score 29.3 points a game, tied for seventh in the league, and give up 27.3. They also traded for cornerback Joey Porter Jr. this week; he has no injury designation and is expected to be available for his Dallas debut.

The consensus line is Houston -3 with a total of 48.5 as of 7:42 AM ET, up from openers of -2.5 and 47.5. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET Sunday, Oct. 4, at Reliant Stadium in Houston, on FOX. The building has a retractable roof and no roof call had been announced when we checked; the forecast is about 80 degrees with a chance of storms around kickoff. Inactives aren't out yet, so treat Collins and Ingram as expected rather than confirmed, and if Williams or Lamb turns up inactive, skip that pick.

Cowboys vs. Texans Predictions

Pick #1: Javonte Williams Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Pick #2: CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

PICK #1: Javonte Williams Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

To cash the Over, Williams basically has to repeat last week. He ran 19 times for 98 yards against Baltimore. The two games before that went 12 carries for 41 and 12 for 30, so he sits at 169 yards on 43 carries and has cleared 59.5 once.

The workload math is the problem. His usual 14 carries would need better than four yards a pop to get to 60, and he averaged 3.4 and 2.5 in the first two weeks before the 5.2 in Rio. He is clearly the lead back (12 of the team's 18 carries, 12 of 21, 19 of 30, with snap shares of 71%, 80% and 76%), and Tyler Goodson took six carries last week. But Dallas has thrown 105 passes against 69 runs. No Dallas offensive lineman is on the final injury report. At -115, as of 7:47 AM ET, you're paying for a 53.5% implied chance.

Here's what worries me. Houston's run defense looked stingy on paper: 21, 23 and 31 opponent carries for 86, 85 and 89 yards, roughly 3.5 a carry. All of that came with linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair on the field for 54 to 60 snaps a game, and he's out today, so the unit is probably softer than those numbers. Jake Hansen, questionable, played 71 snaps last week and Wade Woodaz has no game status, so the room isn't bare. The other risk is game script. Williams went from 12 carries to 19 last week, and a Dallas lead would put him right back there.

If you want more cushion, Williams Under 76.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112) works too; he has gone 72, 50 and 103 in those combined numbers. Just know this and the Lamb Over lean on the same idea, Dallas throwing, so a Cowboys lead that tilts them toward the run hurts both.

PICK #2: CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Lamb's targets haven't budged: 8, 9 and 8. He turned those into 5 catches for 44 yards, 8 for 153 and 7 for 112, playing 81%, 75% and 82% of the offensive snaps, and two of the three cleared this number. That's 25 of Dallas's 101 targets, 20 catches and 15.5 yards a catch. The -113 price (7:47 AM ET) implies 53.1%.

Dak Prescott has been accurate, completing 69.5% of his passes on 34, 31 and 40 attempts for 175, 279 and 276 yards. Houston has allowed 258.7 passing yards a game before sacks, and no Dallas receiver is on the final injury report.

I won't pretend the 153-yard game isn't doing a lot of work. Without it, his other two games average 78, barely over the line. Houston's pass defense number also leans on Buffalo, which threw for 334 of the 776 yards the Texans have allowed; Cincinnati and Indianapolis managed 207 and 235, about 6.6 a pass. The Texans' front has 11 sacks in three games. And a healthy Collins could keep Houston's offense on the field longer, while a Dallas lead would trim Lamb's targets the same way it would add to Williams's carries.

Both picks run on the same Dallas pass volume, which is the point of pairing them.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.