Cowboys vs. Colts Prediction, NFL Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:15 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

The Cowboys (3-5) visit the Colts (2-6) at 1:00 PM ET in Indianapolis, and neither arrives in good shape. Dallas lost 33-30 in overtime to Arizona. Indianapolis has lost four straight, most recently 42-7 at Jacksonville, and it has already traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson. Jonathan Taylor's name is still in trade talk, but he hasn't been moved and should play. The Colts' defense will also be without linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither, safety A.J. Haulcy and cornerback Justin Walley. Dallas is a 4.5-point road favorite, and the total is 51.5.

Whatever the Colts do on offense starts with Taylor. Dallas has the worst run defense in the league, and Daniel Jones hasn't thrown more than one touchdown pass in any game this season. Both picks want the same afternoon: Indianapolis stays close enough to keep handing Taylor the ball, and its points come on the ground.

Cowboys vs. Colts Predictions

• Pick #1: Jonathan Taylor Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Daniel Jones Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-165)

PICK #1: Jonathan Taylor Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Dallas gives up 152.8 rushing yards a game, more than anyone in the league. Taylor has 610 yards in eight games and has gone past 64.5 in six of them, after doing it in 13 of 17 games last season. This number asks for an ordinary day from him, and -110 puts the chance at 52.4%.

The two misses tell you where the risk is. He had 45 yards in a 12-point loss at Pittsburgh, then 23 on eight carries in the 42-7 loss at Jacksonville, where he played 62% of the snaps, his lowest share of the season. Once the Colts fall well behind, his carries dry up, and Seth McGowan has taken a bigger share since the first three weeks of the season. Keep it competitive and Taylor stays busy: he ran for 68, 94 and 95 yards in the Colts' 19-17, 26-20 and 16-10 games.

So far the trade talk hasn't touched his workload. Shane Steichen said he isn't limiting it: "he's on our football team and he's excited for this opportunity to play. He wants to go win this game." Taylor carries no injury designation and practiced fully the last two days of the week. The bet needs him to play, and it assumes his usual lead role.

PICK #2: Daniel Jones Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-165)

Jones has five touchdown passes in eight starts and hasn't thrown two in any of them. The whole team has five passing touchdowns, tied for the fewest in the league, and 10 rushing touchdowns, eight of them by Taylor. Jones also has the lowest passer rating of any regular starting quarterback, 68.6, and he was pulled late in the Jacksonville loss before Steichen decided to keep him as the starter.

At -165, the Under implies a 62.3% chance, which is a steep price, and there's a real case against it. Jones threw two or more in six of his 13 games last season. This season's passing game is a different animal. He didn't throw a touchdown pass against Washington, and he threw one in total across the two games where he attempted 42 and 44 passes. Over both seasons he has stayed under this number in 15 of 21 games.

What could beat it is a Dallas runaway that has Jones throwing all afternoon. Even in the 42-7 loss, though, he threw only one. The bet assumes Jones starts, as expected.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.