Commanders vs Lions NFL Divisional Round picks

The NFL Divisional Round continues on Saturday evening as the Washington Commanders take on the Detroit Lions in a fascinating NFC matchup. Kickoff at Ford Field is set for 8:00 pm ET, with the game broadcast live on FOX. This contest features a Commanders team looking to take a massive step forward in their development as a franchise in the new Jayden Daniels era, while the Lions are looking to make the NFC Conference Championship Game for the second consecutive season. With both teams looking to make a statement on this massive stage, let’s dive into our expert Commanders vs Lions predictions and best bets for this Divisional Round showdown.

Commanders vs Lions Predictions

Pick #1: Washington Commanders +10 over Detroit Lions (-120)

Pick #2: Under 55.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Sam LaPorta to score a touchdown (+155)

PICK #1: Commanders +10 over Lions (-120) 

On paper, this matchup suggests that Detroit should be able to move the ball at will here. After all, the Lions’ offense ranks third in EPA per play, first in success rate and first in and points per drive. However, the Washington defense is a bit better than its perception in the market (16th in EPA per play, 13th in success rate allowed per SumerSports). Therefore, even though the Lions offense has the clear advantage in that matchup, it might not be as lopsided as most would think, especially after Washington put forth a strong effort against a Tampa Bay offense that had been an elite unit for most of the season.

On the other side of the ball, the injuries have caught up to Detroit’s defense in a major way of late, which is not ideal against a Washington passing offense that just gave Tampa Bay fits a week ago. The Commanders should have potential mismatches downfield against a poor Lions secondary, and there could be opportunities for Terry McLaurin to make a few plays in one-on-one situations, as the Lions play more man coverage than any other team in the NFL. Daniels also has a ridiculous 98.1 QB Rating against the blitz over the past six games, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to rattle this budding superstar just by bringing extra pressure on pivotal downs. 

Lastly, these coaching staffs have been extremely aggressive all season long, and that shouldn’t change on Saturday. A game script that features a number of fourth-down attempts from both sides is one that typically favors the underdog, as it introduces a lot of variance into the game. That’s exactly how Washington wants to play, and it could lead to the Commanders stealing a couple of possessions while keeping Detroit’s elite offense off the field in the process. 

PICK #2: Under 55.5 (-110)

Part of what inspires a bit of confidence that we see a game that goes under this extremely high total is the improvements that Detroit’s defense showed against Minnesota back in Week 18. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn should have all sorts of exotic looks ready for Daniels, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Washington started out slow and was forced to play from behind for the majority of the game. 

The Commanders should be able to move the ball throughout, but the Lions defense has become an excellent red-zone unit, as we just saw against Minnesota in Week 18. On the other side, while Detroit’s offense has been incredibly efficient all season long, the Lions are certainly prone to longer drives that take up plenty of clock given that they run the ball at a pretty high rate. It’s not a bet for the weak-hearted, but the under looks the right side to be on in the Motor City.

PICK #3: Sam LaPorta to score a touchdown (+155)

My favorite prop bets on the board this weekend and for this Commanders vs Lions game is Sam LaPorta to find the end zone for the eighth time this season. Washington's defense struggles mightily defending the tight end and it’s worth noting that the Commanders play a ton of man coverage on defense, which Jared Goff is very comfortable against. Given the advantages Detroit's passing offense has in this game, we can expect the former Iowa product to be targeted early and often in this matchup. With that in mind, our expert is comfortable taking a stab on LaPorta to get free and catch his third touchdown over the last four games.