Commanders vs Eagles NFL NFC Championship Game picks

This year’s NFC Championship game serves as a rubber match between two bitter NFC East rivals. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon with kickoff set for 3:00 pm ET on FOX. 

Washington has reached the NFC Championship game for the first time in 33 seasons. Back then, the Commanders were a regular at this stage of the postseason, winning the Super Bowl three times in four appearances over the span of a decade. The franchise’s rebirth coincides with new coach Dan Quinn and rookie phenom Jayden Daniels. Washington has won seven straight games, including four on the road.

The Eagles meanwhile are looking for their third Super Bowl appearance in the past seven seasons. After winning the NFC East for the second time in three seasons, the Eagles handled the Green Bay Packers and held off the Los Angeles Rams over the last two weeks at home. The team has won four straight and 14 of its last 15 games. That stretch includes nine consecutive wins at home, including a 26-18 victory over the Commanders in November. 

Washington returned the favor with a 36-33 win at home in the waning seconds last month. Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early in that contest, but he is back under center with superstar running back Saquon Barkley lined up behind him in the backfield. 

Let’s get into our Commanders vs Eagles predictions and best bets for Sunday’s NFC Championship game. 

Commanders vs Eagles Predictions

Pick #1: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 over Washington Commanders (-102)

Pick #2: Over 47.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Saquon Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards (-114)

Pick #1: Eagles -6.5 over Commanders (-102)

Recency bias may go against this pick. The last time these two teams met, Daniels threw for a career-high five touchdowns, including a nine-yard winner to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left in a 36-33 victory. Last week, the Commanders went to Detroit and knocked off the top-seeded Lions, 45-31. Daniels threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns and outscored Detroit 14-3 in the fourth quarter to pull away.

However, one of the few teams that can argue it has more momentum than the Commanders is Philadelphia. The Eagles have been unstoppable at home, winning nine straight at Lincoln Financial Field. That included last week’s 28-22 victory over the Rams. Hurts threw for just 128 yards, but his job was to protect the ball and make sure it found its way into the arms of Barkley as much as possible. The former New York Giant responded with 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns, the second time this season he went for more than 200 yards against the Rams. It was also the 13th time this season he tallied more than 100 yards on the ground. The Eagles are 12-1 in those contests. The only loss came against the Commanders, but Barkley has done his job against Washington this season. In two games against the Commanders, Barkley has rushed for 296 yards and four scores.

That should be the difference on Sunday. As dynamic as Washington has been most of the season, especially with the electric Daniels under center, the team’s rushing defense has been poor at best. The team finished with the third-worst rushing defense during the regular season, allowing 137 yards on the ground per game. The Commanders allowed the Lions to surpass 200 yards on the ground last week, and the Eagles and Barkley should expect to impose their will in that regard on Sunday. 

The game should remain tight throughout, but expect the Eagles to advance to Super Bowl 59 on the strength of its line play and Barkley’s legs. Look for Philadelphia to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites. 

Pick #2: Over 47.5 (-110)

These two teams totaled 44 points in their regular season meeting at Lincoln Financial Field, and the setting of a championship game suggests a defensive clamp down. That is especially true on Philadelphia’s side, as the Commanders are without offensive linemen Sam Cosmi and Tyler Biadasz, while the Eagles’ second-year defensive lineman Jalen Carter leads a unit hungry to get revenge for last month’s last-second loss.

But Daniels has been virtually unstoppable during Washington’s seven-game win streak, throwing for 1,522 yards and 17 touchdowns during that stretch. He threw for 258 yards and five touchdowns and rushed for 81 yards in the win over the Eagles last month. He will not be phased by the opponent or the big stage. Look for the two teams to total more than 47.5 points Sunday afternoon. 

Pick #3: Saquon Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards (-114)

This line is incredibly high for a rushing yards prop but it’s hard not to keep riding with Barkley. He surpassed 100 yards on the ground for the fourth time in five games and 13th time overall with his 205-yard output against the Rams last week. The 2,000-yard running back is averaging 162 yards on the ground in the postseason and has rushed for more than 125.5 yards eight times already this season, including in both matchups with the Commanders. 

If Philadelphia is to advance to the Super Bowl, it will need to get as much out of Barkley as it possibly can, so look for him to rush for more than 125.5 yards on Sunday afternoon.