Commanders vs Buccaneers NFL Super Wild Card Weekend picks
We’re into playoff football here, and one of the most intriguing matchups through both conferences has to be the 12-5 Washington Commanders squaring off with the NFC South-winning 10-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa will host this playoff game, just as they hosted the first matchup between these two teams in Week 1. Back in September, the Bucs won 37-20; as the home team, Tampa is the narrow favorite here in January.
This should be an offensively-charged game and a fun one, so let’s look at our picks for this game.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Predictions
Pick #1: Washington Commanders +3 (-105)
Pick #2: Over 50.5 (-112)
Pick #3: Jayden Daniels Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
See the latest odds, line movements and trends here.
Pick #1: Commanders +3 over Buccaneers (-105)
We’ll begin our Commanders vs Buccaneers picks by taking the Commanders as a slim 3.0-point underdog on the road in Tampa. The Commanders have been an awesome offense on the back of the favorite Offensive Rookie of the Year, quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels has thrown 25 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions, amassed over 3,500 passing yards and put up a strong 69% completion percentage. If that wasn’t enough, Daniels also rushed for just shy of 900 yards. He’s been the engine of this offense and has helped the Commanders to 5th in the NFL with 28.5 points per game this season.
The Buccaneers cemented their place in the playoffs by winning the NFC South, and while they’re plenty deserving of a spot in the playoffs, they have just one win over a team with a winning record since September – a 40-17 win against the Chargers in Week 15. While there’s no doubt Baker Mayfield and company can score a ton of points, so can Daniels. This game could be a shootout, but more importantly, a close game. No team has a massive edge in any one facet of their team, so we’ll take the Commanders with the points in a game where either Daniels wills Washington to yet another win or Tampa wins by a close margin.
Pick #2: Over 50.5 (-112)
The next pick in our Commanders vs Buccaneers predictions is taking the over, which is a robust 50.5 points. The Commanders and Buccaneers feature offenses in the top 5 of EPA per play, with defensive EPA per play merely average to below average. Both teams feature excellent quarterbacks, a strong downfield passing game and solid, improving run games. While RB Brian Robinson Jr. has been trailing off in recent weeks, the Commanders’ run game gets a jolt of energy with RB Austin Ekeler now back in the fold.
Not to be outdone, the running back tandem of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White has been excellent for Tampa, with Irving averaging 96.8 yards per game on the ground over the last four weeks. Did we also mention Baker Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns this season? These offenses are both on fire, and we’ll go with the Over for this matchup, which has the highest over/under of all of the Wild Card Weekend games.
Pick #3: Jayden Daniels Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Our Commanders vs Buccaneers best bet for Super Wild Card Weekend is with Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders. Based on simple math, Daniels has averaged 8.7 rushing attempts per game in his 17 starts this season. In his last five games, he has surpassed that total in every game but Week 18, where Daniels almost certainly would have eclipsed that total had Marcus Mariota not come in to relieve Daniels.
With Daniels willing this team to victories and the ground game for the Commanders struggling a little bit, Daniels has picked up the slack, averaging 91 rushing yards per game in Weeks 15-17. The Buccaneers give up the ninth-most rushing attempts per game allowed to quarterbacks, so this is a matchup worth exploiting and worth taking advantage of while Daniels and the Commanders are running hot – pun intended. We’ll take the Over on Daniels’ 8.5 rushing attempts prop (-120) confidently.
