Colts vs. Vikings Prediction, NFL Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/25)

Fact checked at 8:55 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Odds as of 8:03 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Unbeaten Minnesota (5-0) comes off its bye to host Indianapolis (2-4) at 1:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium, on CBS. The Colts have lost two straight, 34-22 at Pittsburgh and 26-20 at home to Tennessee, and they fired general manager Chris Ballard this week. They'll also be without tight end Tyler Warren (groin), who misses a second straight game, cornerback Sauce Gardner (calf), receiver Anthony Gould (concussion) and linebacker CJ Allen (ankle), all ruled out on the final injury report. Minnesota gets Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Christian Darrisaw back, and running back Jordan Mason has been activated off injured reserve. The line has moved hard toward the Vikings since it opened.

We think this one comes down to the Minnesota defense taking away the Colts' passing game. The Vikings allow 12.8 points per game, fewest in the league, and 195.4 passing yards per game, third-fewest. Their turnover margin is plus-6, tied for the league's best, while Indianapolis sits at minus-8, the worst. Expect Daniel Jones to throw a lot and get little for it: Josh Downs stays under his receiving number, Jones gives one away, and Minnesota wins. Jones and Kyler Murray are expected to start, and neither is on either club's final injury report.

Colts vs. Vikings Predictions

• Pick #1: Josh Downs Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
• Pick #2: Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-135)

PICK #1: Josh Downs Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Downs has finished under 50.5 in each of his last three games: 40 yards against Tennessee, 47 at Pittsburgh and 16 against Washington. He leads Indianapolis with 289 receiving yards, but most of that came early. His only two big games, 77 and 72 yards, were both in September, and the full log reads 40, 47, 16, 77, 72 and 37, newest first. That's four unders in six tries, against a price of -111 that implies 52.6%.

Minnesota should keep him short. It allows 195.4 passing yards a game, third-fewest in the league, and Brian Flores' defense blitzes on 77.8% of its plays by the Colts' own count, more than anybody. The same Colts preview has Indianapolis with the second-lowest rate of explosive passes against the blitz. Downs usually needs a chunk play or two to get to 50.

Targets are the worry. With Warren out against Tennessee, Downs saw eight targets, and his two overs came on nine and 11. If the Colts fall behind early and throw all afternoon, some of those looks come back. Keenan Allen has drawn 29 targets over his past three games, though, so Downs won't get every extra pass.

PICK #2: Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-135)

Jones has thrown an interception in five of his six games, including two against Tennessee last week. He has six picks and four touchdown passes on the season, and the only clean game was the 34-22 loss at Pittsburgh.

The Vikings have six interceptions in five games and picked off at least one pass in four of them, with Byron Murphy grabbing two against New Orleans. The Colts' turnover margin is the worst in football, and a team chasing a 5-0 opponent figures to throw plenty. The -135 price implies 57.4%, well short of how often he's actually thrown one.

The blitz cuts the other way, though. According to the Colts' preview, none of Jones' six interceptions came against the blitz, and Minnesota blitzes more than any team. If head coach Shane Steichen's plan of quick throws and winning one-on-one matchups works, Jones could avoid the kind of mistakes he's made when teams haven't blitzed. We'll still take a quarterback who has thrown one in five of six games, against a defense tied for the league's best turnover margin, with his team likely playing from behind.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.