Colts vs. Steelers Prediction, NFL Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:17 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Bring a poncho. The Colts and Steelers are both 2-2, and rain bands from the remnants of a hurricane are reaching Pittsburgh in time for the game. The National Weather Service hourly forecast puts rain showers at a 94% chance for the kickoff hour and 79% the hour after, easing to about 50% by the fourth quarter. Temperatures sit in the low 60s with an east wind of 9 to 12 mph, and a second forecast has gusts around 15 to 25 mph. So the field will be wet, but this isn't the kind of wind that takes the pass away.

And Pittsburgh passes. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 40, 39, 34 and 40 times, 153 attempts in four games, and it hasn't mattered whether the Steelers won (twice) or lost (twice). Indianapolis gives up 276.2 passing yards a game, 28th of 32 teams. The Colts have won two straight, 19-17 over Houston and 30-13 over Washington, but that second one was in London last Sunday and they're in Pittsburgh a week later. The Steelers lost 27-24 at Cleveland on Thursday, Oct. 1, and have had ten days off.

Injuries are steering Pittsburgh's targets toward the backfield and the tight ends. Wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. went on injured reserve Saturday with a foot injury. Running back Rico Dowdle, who has missed the last two games with a toe injury, is questionable after three limited practices, and on Saturday the Steelers elevated running back Lew Nichols from the practice squad. Nichols dressed for both games Dowdle missed. On the other side of the ball, cornerback Jamel Dean and safety DeShon Elliott are out, cornerback Jalen Ramsey is questionable, and defensive tackle Derrick Harmon is on injured reserve. The Colts won't have receivers Darius Slayton or Ashton Dulin, and Keenan Allen is questionable.

Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite at -118 (Indianapolis +2.5 at -102), with the moneyline at Steelers -146 and Colts +122. The total sat at 47.5 on the look-ahead line before Week 4 and is down to 43.5. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on CBS from Acrisure Stadium. Inactives haven't been announced.

Our read: Rodgers keeps throwing, and on a wet day the ball goes short, to Jaylen Warren out of the backfield and Pat Freiermuth over the middle. Both bets need Pittsburgh to stay in the air. If the Steelers jump ahead early and lean on the run, or the rain turns heavy enough to shorten the game, both are in trouble.

Colts vs. Steelers Predictions

• Pick #1: Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
• Pick #2: Pat Freiermuth Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Warren hasn't finished under this number yet. He has 27, 34, 49 and 33 receiving yards on 6, 4, 4 and 6 targets, which works out to 35.8 a game against a line of 20.5.

He has done it with and without Dowdle, who was active for the first two games. In Week 1 Warren played only 37% of the snaps and still drew six targets for 27 yards, and in Week 2 he played 71% and had 34. Once Dowdle went down, Warren played 90% and 97% of the snaps and put up 49 and 33. Elevating Nichols on Saturday looks like the Steelers covering for Dowdle again, and if he sits, Warren has the backfield passing work to himself. No other Steelers running back has been targeted in the last two games.

Indianapolis has also been generous to backs as receivers. Running backs have 29, 81, 21 and 46 receiving yards against the Colts (Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston and Washington, in that order). Kenneth Walker III caught six for 61 for the Chiefs, and Washington's Jacory Croskey-Merritt got 35 on two catches.

What can go wrong is the catch count. Warren has two, three and three receptions in his last three, so one dropped checkdown can leave him short, and his 34 in Week 2 was two catches, one of them a 26-yarder. A Dowdle return would trim his share too, though Week 1 says the targets can survive that. At -112 you're paying for a 52.8% chance.

PICK #2: Pat Freiermuth Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

This is the thinner of the two. Freiermuth has 46, 32, 30 and 17 yards, over the number in three of four but falling every week, and the 17 at Cleveland was his low.

What keeps us on it is the workload. He has seen five, five, four and five targets, about 13% of Rodgers' throws every week, on 60% to 75% of the snaps, and Rodgers averages 38 attempts. The Colts have had trouble with the position as well. The opponent's top tight end has gone for 49 (Mark Andrews), 101 (Travis Kelce), 30 (Dalton Schultz) and 5 (Chig Okonkwo), so three of four cleared 26.5.

The worry is Darnell Washington, who out-snapped him in Week 3, 47 to 37, and whose targets have climbed from two and two to four and five. Don't count on Pittman's absence to help: Pittman also sat out Week 2, and Freiermuth got the same five targets while Germie Bernard got eight. That 276.2 passing yards allowed is also padded by Lamar Jackson (324) and Patrick Mahomes (382). The Colts held C.J. Stroud to 167.

-114 implies 53.3%, so Freiermuth has to be a bit better than a coin flip on five targets. Three of four games and what tight ends have done to this defense say he is, by a small margin.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.