Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction, NFL Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (11/1)

Fact checked at 8:21 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

Odds as of 7:28 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

The Colts (2-5) visit the Jaguars (4-2) at EverBank Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on CBS, days after trading left guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco. We expect a comfortable, low-scoring Jacksonville win, something like 27-14, against a defense that gives up passing yards but few points. That means the Jaguars on the spread, the Under and Josh Downs collecting yards while Daniel Jones throws from behind.

Jones remains the starter, and Trevor Lawrence isn't on the injury report. Tyler Warren and Sauce Gardner are back for Indianapolis. Jacksonville is without safety Antonio Johnson, and receiver Jakobi Meyers is questionable but reported to be playing.

Colts vs. Jaguars Predictions

• Pick #1: Jaguars -10 (-108)
• Pick #2: Under 46.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: Josh Downs Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

PICK #1: Jaguars -10 (-108)

Jacksonville has played only two true home games, and it won them 34-10 over Cleveland and 35-6 over New England. Its other four, on the road or in London, were all decided by seven or fewer. Indianapolis hasn't won in Jacksonville since 2014, 11 straight losses.

It's last in the league in turnover margin at minus-9, while Jacksonville is plus-5, and Jones has 1,398 passing yards, four touchdowns, seven interceptions and 19 sacks in seven games. Indianapolis scored 22, 20 and 10 during its three-game losing streak, all with Nelson at left guard. His replacement, fourth-round rookie Jalen Farmer, is expected to make his first start after playing three offensive snaps this season.

You aren't getting a bargain. The line has gone from -7.5 to -10 since it opened, mostly on the trades, and some books are at 9.5. At -108, you're paying for a 51.9% chance, and a 10-point win is a push.

Six games is a small sample, and Jacksonville has won by more than 10 in only two of them. The Colts have three one-score losses and covered as 7-point underdogs in their 16-10 loss at Minnesota.

PICK #2: Under 46.5 (-110)

Only one of Jacksonville's six games has gone past 44 points, the 34-31 loss to Houston in London. The Jaguars allow 17.3 points a game, third in the league. Opponents have scored touchdowns on only 40% of their red zone trips.

Indianapolis wants to run, and this is the wrong place for it. "The game plan today was to go in and run the football," coach Shane Steichen said after the Minnesota game. Jacksonville allows a league-low 72.2 rushing yards a game and 3.2 yards a carry. That leaves Jones and a new left guard to sustain drives, and the Colts' 22 points a game came with Nelson.

The weather helps a little. The National Weather Service has 76 degrees at kickoff, an east wind at 16 mph and a 37% chance of showers and storms, with rain chances rising through the afternoon. Under 46.5 has hit in five of Jacksonville's six games and four of Indianapolis' seven, and -110 implies 52.4%.

Jacksonville's own offense can break this. The Jaguars have scored 34, 35 and 31 in three games, and the Colts allowed 25.7 points and 124.4 rushing yards a game even with Buckner. A 35-point day would leave Indianapolis only 11 points of room.

PICK #3: Josh Downs Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Jacksonville bends through the air: 273.8 passing yards allowed a game and 7.4 yards per pass play, both 30th in the league. Those yards haven't turned into many points, which is why this sits comfortably with the Under. The Colts have shown they can do the same thing, with Jones throwing for 267 yards in a 34-22 loss at Pittsburgh and 269 in a 26-20 loss to Tennessee.

Downs leads Indianapolis with 307 receiving yards and has cleared this line in five of seven games, four of them among the five with Warren active. That's only seven games, but he also cleared it in 10 of 16 last season. At 11.8 yards a catch, he needs about three, and he's gotten there on two (37 yards) and three (47). At -109 that's a 52.2% implied chance.

Minnesota is the bad version: two catches for 18 yards on Jones' 108. Downs' 56.5% catch rate is a career low, and Warren, who leads the team with 30 catches, takes targets back.

Downs has requested a trade and the Colts have talked to teams about him, but Steichen said he'll play his normal role and added, "He's ready to go." No deal has been reported. If he's held out, most books void the bet.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.