Colts vs. Commanders Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:27 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:48 AM ET

Two 1-2 teams meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and both offenses are held together with tape. Washington is the designated home team on a neutral field. Jayden Daniels, out since dislocating his elbow in Week 2, is inactive, so Marcus Mariota starts after throwing for 183 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-31 win over Seattle. Indianapolis snapped a nine-game losing streak that stretched back to last season by beating Houston 19-17, but the receiver room has thinned out: Keenan Allen (groin) is on the inactive list after the club ruled him out Saturday, Darius Slayton is inactive too, and Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury. Terry McLaurin (hamstring) is inactive for Washington.

The line has flipped. Washington opened as a 1.5-point favorite; the consensus had the Colts -4.5 (-110) as of 7:48 AM ET, a six-point move, and the total has dropped to 46.5 from an opener of 48.5 to 49.5. Both defenses give up more than 30 points a game, which makes the side and total hard to trust, so we went to the player props. Kickoff is Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (2:30 PM in London) on NFL Network. The forecast is dry, around 68 to 70 degrees, with light wind.

Colts vs. Commanders Predictions

• Pick #1: Jonathan Taylor Under 94.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Josh Downs Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Jonathan Taylor Under 94.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Taylor has cleared 94.5 once in three games, and he's running into the best part of Washington's roster.

The Commanders allow 82 rushing yards a game, third-fewest in the league, after facing Philadelphia, Dallas and Seattle. Of the 64 carries against them, 27 have gone for two yards or less. Taylor's logs: 98 yards against Baltimore, 92 at Kansas City, 68 against Houston. That's two Unders on this number and an 86-yard average, and the Houston game is the warning sign, 23 carries for 68 yards. ESPN's preview gives the credit to the front of Javon Kinlaw, Tim Settle and Daron Payne, with Odafe Oweh setting the edge. Kinlaw practiced in full Friday, and none of the three carried a game status.

His workload is not the question. Taylor has played 85 to 94 percent of the offensive snaps every week, and Seth McGowan, the only other back with touches, has been between 6 and 15 percent, so this Under doesn't need a rest day to cash. It needs Washington to keep winning at the line.

What could beat it is volume. Indianapolis is a four-and-a-half-point favorite with Allen and Slayton inactive and Pierce out, so it has every reason to feed Taylor and run clock; he's had 19, 24 and 23 carries. Three games is also a short record for a run defense that ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed over 2024 and 2025. The Under was -110 as of 7:49 AM ET, with the Over at -114. Taylor Over 19.5 receiving yards (-111) is another way in, but it leans on Washington's pass defense, the same angle as the Downs pick.

PICK #2: Josh Downs Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Washington allows 280.3 net passing yards a game, 31st of 32 teams through three games, and Downs, who leads the Colts with 186 receiving yards, is the top wide receiver they have left.

He has 77 yards on 11 targets against Houston, 72 on nine at Kansas City and 37 on four against Baltimore. That's two of three over this line, with a 31 percent share of the team's targets last week and 30 percent the week before. Allen, second on the team in receiving yards behind Downs, took 9, 5 and 6 targets in those games. Those looks have to go somewhere. With Slayton also inactive, the wide receivers behind Downs are Laquon Treadwell, Ashton Dulin and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who was just elevated from the practice squad. The Over was -114 as of 7:49 AM ET, with the line at 69.5.

This isn't a lock. Daniel Jones has thrown for 235, 210 and 166 yards, and Downs played only 68 percent of the snaps against Houston. Tight end Tyler Warren drew 10 targets against Houston and 7 at Kansas City, so he'll soak up some of Allen's share, and Dulin, questionable this week with an ankle injury, is not on the inactive list and could take a few more. Downs Over 6.5 receptions (-112) is the alternative, though he's reached that in only one game of three. If Indianapolis ends up throwing more than it runs, this pick and the Taylor Under can both win.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.