Cleveland State vs. Missouri Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:47 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:43 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Missouri opens its season against Cleveland State at 8:00 PM ET at Mizzou Arena, on SEC Network+. We expect a fast, loose opener. Missouri wins, but a short-handed rotation full of new faces gives up enough at the other end for Cleveland State to stay inside the number and push the total up. So we're on Cleveland State +26.5 and the Over.

Neither team has played a regular-season game. Missouri has one returning starter, Mark Mitchell, next to five-star freshmen Jason Crowe Jr. and Toni Bryant. Cleveland State is in its second year under former Missouri assistant Rob Summers, has 14 new players and was picked 11th in the Horizon League preseason poll. Every number below rests on a very thin record.

Cleveland State vs. Missouri Predictions

• Pick #1: Cleveland State +26.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: Over 160.5 (-105)

PICK #1: Cleveland State +26.5 (-115)

Missouri is short on bodies for a 26-point favorite. Jaylen Carey, the Tennessee transfer who was projected to start, is suspended for a violation of team rules. DePaul transfer CJ Gunn was ruled ineligible by the SEC, and backup forward Luke Northweather misses the opener with an injury. Dennis Gates says Mitchell will play "starting minutes" but hasn't decided whether he starts, partly to protect the development of Bryant and Bryson Tiller. A coach thinking that way spreads minutes around. He isn't building a lineup to win by 30.

Cleveland State has a way to keep this respectable. Missouri forward Trent Pierce called this year's Vikings "really downhill" and said the Tigers can't let them get to the basket or the foul line, and Gates expects them to attack early in the shot clock. Trips to the line keep the scoreboard moving for an outmanned team.

At -115 you need a 53.5% chance. The risk is the start. Missouri scored the first 23 points of last season's meeting and won 86-59, but Mitchell is the only returning Missouri starter and Cleveland State has turned over its roster. If Missouri's depth takes over in the first ten minutes, 26.5 can disappear quickly.

PICK #2: Over 160.5 (-105)

Missouri's own players point to transition defense as the soft spot. "We were really good in the half-court defensively, but I feel like we definitely could be better in transition D," Pierce said, looking back at the exhibitions. Cleveland State wants to run and drive, so that's the matchup that matters for this total.

Missouri should score plenty too. Crowe averaged 23 points and 5.5 assists in two exhibitions, and the Tigers scored 81 in the exhibition loss at UNLV while giving up 90. That's a tiny sample, but it's all anyone has on this group. The betting splits lean the same way, with 72% of the bets and 91% of the money on the Over.

The -105 price implies 51.2%. Opening nights can get ugly, with missed shots, long droughts and rotations that haven't figured each other out. A low-scoring Missouri rout would sink both picks, so both need the Vikings to keep scoring. Their downhill style is why we think they will.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.