Chiefs vs Steelers NFL Week 17 Christmas Day picks

Thanksgiving may be the holiday that is most synonymous with football, but don’t sleep on Christmas. This week, there are games on Wednesday (Christmas), Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. That’s right; we have five days of NFL action. It starts with a huge AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers on Wednesday afternoon. Kansas City carries the best record in the NFL at 14-1, while Pittsburgh is 10-5 and trying to remain atop the AFC North.

The opening game of Week 17 is set for 1:00 PM ET on Netflix. Let’s take a look at the best bets to make. 

Chiefs vs Steelers Predictions 

Pick #1 – Chiefs -2.5 (-110) 

Pick #2 – Under 43.5 Total Points (-115) 

Pick #3 – Najee Harris to Score a Touchdown (+170) 

PICK #1: Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

With the Bills 12-3 and owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, they are still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the conference. That means the Chiefs will still be extremely motivated heading into Week 17. They can’t coast down the stretch of the regular season – at least not yet. It's bad news for the Steelers that Patrick Mahomes and company will put their best bet forward on Wednesday.

Kansas City has won five games in a row since its lone loss to Buffalo, and its two most recent victories have come in unusually comfortable fashion. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has a habit of surviving nail-biters, but it took care of Cleveland 21-7 in Week 15 and beat Houston 27-19 this past weekend. Mahomes accounted for 293 total yards and 2 touchdowns without getting picked off against the Texans despite having just recovered from a high ankle sprain.

Don’t be surprised if Mahomes is even better on Wednesday, securing another win and giving himself some significant time off in Week 18 and Wild Card Weekend.

PICK #2: Under 43.5 Total Points (-115)

The Chiefs defense hit a bit of a midseason snag, but it is now back to where it was through the first 10 weeks of the season. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s outfit has limited its last four opponents to 17, 17, 7 and 19 points. Houston boasts a prolific offense but managed only 311 total yards on 5.4 yards per play on Saturday. Pittsburgh doesn’t figure to fare much better.

Russell Wilson is averaging just 168 passing yards over the last three contests, and he has been sacked at least three times in five of the previous eight. The good news for the Steelers is that the Chiefs offense isn’t a dominant force like it was in previous years. All things considered, the Under looks like a smart move. 

PICK #3: Najee Harris to Score a Touchdown (+170)

At +170, Harris has great value to score a touchdown on Christmas Day. The Alabama product did not find the endzone in either Week 15 or Week 16, but both were negative game scripts for the Steelers. They got blown out by both the Eagles and Ravens, so Harris was reduced to 15 carries in the losses. The good news for Harris and Pittsburgh is that Kansas City rarely wins going away, and – as the 2.5-point spread suggests – this matchup is expected to be competitive.

Harris should get plenty of touches, especially since, more often than not the, best defense against Kansas City’s offense is to move the clock and keep Mahomes off the field for as long as possible. The 2021 first-round pick has scored 5 TDs this season, all of which have come in the last 10 games. There is no reason why he can’t victimize the Chiefs at least once on Wednesday.