Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, NFL Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (11/1)

Fact checked at 8:21 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

Odds as of 7:28 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

The Chiefs (5-1) visit the Broncos (5-2) at Empower Field at Mile High for a 4:25 PM ET kickoff on CBS, and the winner leaves alone in first place in the AFC West. We expect Kansas City to win a low-scoring game on the ground: Kenneth Walker III gets his yards against a soft run defense, and a Denver offense that just lost RJ Harvey can't keep up. That means the Chiefs on the spread, the Under and Walker's yardage. Their 22-6 win over the Chargers, with 139 yards from Walker, is the game we have in mind.

Rashee Rice is back for Kansas City, but cornerbacks Mansoor Delane (out) and L'Jarius Sneed (injured reserve) aren't. Denver's Jaylen Waddle, Garett Bolles and Zach Allen are questionable.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions

• Pick #1: Chiefs -1.5 (-106)
• Pick #2: Under 40.5 (-109)
• Pick #3: Kenneth Walker III Over 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-113)

PICK #1: Chiefs -1.5 (-106)

Denver is 5-2 with an offense that gains 276.4 yards a game, and it now faces a defense allowing 17.2 points, second in the league. The Chiefs held the Broncos to 176 yards and 2 of 12 on third down in Week 1. Denver's 30 points at Arizona last week leaned on a 62-yard Bo Nix run and a 52-yard catch-and-run by Harvey, after the Broncos managed just 13 plays of 20 yards or more in their first six games. Harvey and his 304 scrimmage yards are gone, which leaves J.K. Dobbins and rookie Jonah Coleman. Waddle, Denver's leading receiver, is questionable with a chest injury.

The offense that scored three at Seattle was missing Rice and right tackle Jaylon Moore, and neither carries an injury designation now. Patrick Mahomes threw nine touchdown passes in the first four games and none in the two without Rice. All five Chiefs wins came by three or more, and -106 implies only 51.5%.

Denver won't make it easy at home. It's 3-0 there and 11-1 in the regular season since the start of 2025, with wins over the Rams and Seahawks this year. Delane played every defensive snap last week, so with two corners gone, Kansas City's scoring defense isn't quite the unit that built that number. Six games is a small sample, and a one-point win loses this.

PICK #2: Under 40.5 (-109)

Denver's defense has allowed 18.3 points a game since giving up 31 in Week 1, so neither offense should find this easy. Mahomes has struggled in this building. In his last two starts there, a 24-9 loss in 2023 and a 22-19 loss last season, the Broncos allowed one touchdown pass, took three interceptions, recorded six sacks and held the Chiefs to 1 of 7 in the red zone.

Four of Denver's seven games and three of Kansas City's six stayed under 40.5, against the 52.2% that -109 implies. Books posted 41.5 to 42.5 after last week's games, so the number has already come down, and the Under has 76% of the money on 65% of the bets. A Chiefs team running with a lead also keeps the clock moving.

This one could lose by a hair: the last two Denver games Mahomes started, 31-10 and 22-19, each finished on 41. Denver's receivers also get an easier look without Delane and Sneed. Don't expect weather to help, with a forecast of mostly cloudy skies, a high near 63 and southeast wind at 5 to 7 mph, with gusts up to 15.

PICK #3: Kenneth Walker III Over 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-113)

Walker has 701 rushing yards in six games, and Denver allows 133.3 a game on the ground, 28th in the league. Every opponent has reached 90 against the Broncos. He had 173 rushing yards and 18 receiving in Week 1, when Denver missed 28 tackles, and this defense is now without safety Talanoa Hufanga, with Allen and safety Brandon Jones questionable.

He's cleared 112.5 in four of six games: 191 against Denver, 178 against the Colts, 179 at Las Vegas and 139 against the Chargers. The misses are 73 at Miami and 57 at Seattle. That's a short record, but he's played about three-quarters of the snaps in each of his last four games, and -113 implies 53.1%.

Seattle is the blueprint against him. It played nickel or dime on all 50 Kansas City snaps and never let him gain 10 yards on a carry, and Denver spent the week studying that plan. Rice and Moore missed that game, though, and the Chiefs trailed 13-0 in the third quarter. His other three big games each had 41 points or more, so the Chargers game is the one that has to repeat, and if Kansas City falls behind again, his carries will dry up.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.