Chargers vs Chiefs NFL Week 14 SNF picks

The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in Kansas City in a fascinating AFC West matchup on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on NBC. This contest features a Chargers team that is looking to upset its division rival and prove that it’s a threat in the loaded AFC, while the Chiefs are in position to clinch yet another AFC West division crown with a victory. 

With both teams looking to make a statement on this big primetime stage, let’s dive into our expert’s Chargers vs Chiefs predictions and best bets for this Sunday Night Football showdown.

Chargers vs Chiefs Predictions

Pick #1 - Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-115) vs LA Chargers

Pick #2 - Under 43.5 Total Points (-110)

Pick #3 - Noah Gray Over 2.5 Receptions (-140)

PICK #1: Chiefs -3.5 (-115) vs Chargers

The Chargers survived a brutal “sandwich spot” in Atlanta a week ago, as Los Angeles was able to win on the road on a short week, despite clearly not playing its best game. In fact, if not for a whopping four interceptions from Kirk Cousins, the Chargers don’t escape with a victory in that game, which is part of why we’ll be fading Jim Harbaugh’s team this week. 

The first meeting between these teams saw the Chiefs emerge with a 17-10 victory, as the Chargers roster just couldn’t keep up with the reigning champions. Kansas City ran the ball more effectively (101 yards to Los Angeles’ 55 yards), Patrick Mahomes outplayed Justin Herbert, the Chiefs were more efficient on third down and they committed fewer penalties. We’re expecting a similar script on Sunday, especially with the game in Arrowhead. 

While the Chiefs have obtained an 11-1 record by some very thin margins this season, things historically tend to improve for Andy Reid’s teams in December. Reid’s teams have also been outstanding when given extra rest in his career, and the Chiefs are getting a full nine days to prepare for their division rival, while the Bolts are competing in their third game in just 14 days. The situational spot is too good to pass up here, so let’s back Kansas City to finally win by margin on Sunday.

PICK #2: Under 43.5 (-110)

The first game between these teams was a very low-scoring affair, with just 27 total points scored between the two teams. Don’t expect much to be different this time around, especially considering the offensive woes of both sides. 

While we do expect Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to positively regress and show better at home this week, it’s a major factor to consider when handicapping the total. Kansas City’s offense has been mediocre at best for most of the season, and largely devoid of explosiveness. After all, the Chiefs are just 21st in yards per pass (7.0) and 25th in yards per rush (4.1). We can expect some improvement to take place on the ground since Isiah Pacheco’s return gives Kansas City a two-headed monster at running back. With that said, the Chargers boast a slew of top-ranked defensive marks, as the Bolts are tops in opponent points per game and opponent points per play this season. We’re sure they’ll come motivated and angry for revenge in this one. 

On the other side, Kansas City’s defense is still grossly underrated in the market. It’s almost impossible to run on the Chiefs this season (3.7 yards per carry allowed), and even the most explosive pass offenses they’ve faced (Bengals, 49ers and Bills) have been kept to an average of 244 yards per game. Kansas City will be cold and windy, and this battle is filled with animosity between a couple of teams that have a long history, so let’s take the under in this one. 

PICK #3: Noah Gray Over 2.5 Receptions (-140)

One of the recent developments in the Chiefs offense of late has been the emergence of Noah Gray in the tight end room. As Travis Kelce continues to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, Gray has quietly become a dependable target for Mahomes, racking up a total of 12 receptions and four touchdowns over the Chiefs’ last three contests. 

He’ll be going up against a Chargers defense that allowed Gray to haul in four passes for 40 yards in the first meeting between these teams, and we can expect another solid effort from Gray on Sunday.