Chargers vs Cardinals MNF Picks - October 21

The improving Los Angeles Chargers and struggling Arizona Cardinals meet in Glendale, Arizona on Monday night at 9 PM ET for the second of two MNF contests that evening. Los Angeles is 3-2 overall and 3-1-1 against the spread this season, including 2-1 ATS on the road. Arizona is 2-4 overall and 1-2 ATS at home. The Cardinals have lost 5-of-6 at home and 15 of their last 20 games overall. While Los Angeles has only won four of its last 14 games, the Jim Harbaugh era has inspired hope. 

Below, read our experts’s predictions on this AFC-NFC clash:

Predictions

Pick #1: Los Angeles Chargers -2 over Arizona Cardinals (-112)

Pick #2: Under 44 points (-108)

Pick #3: JK Dobbins (LAC) 90+ rushing yards (+210)

Pick #1: Chargers -2 over Cardinals (-112) 

The Chargers come into Monday night’s game in Glendale back on track after holding off the Denver Broncos on the road last week, 23-16. More importantly, it looks like quarterback Justin Herbert is finally emerging from the high ankle sprain he suffered earlier in the season. He threw for a season-high 237 yards in the win over Denver, and he has done a good job protecting the ball so far this season – throwing just one interception. 

The key battle this week, however, should be the Chargers running game versus the Cardinals run defense. The Chargers are just 19th in the league with 639 yards rushing, but JK Dobbins is emerging in the backfield. He is second in the AFC with 438 yards, and rushed a career-high 25 times for 96 yards and a touchdown last week against the Carolina Panthers.

Meanwhile, injuries have decimated the Cardinals’ defensive front. They’ve allowed the fifth-most total yards so far this season, with a pass rush and pressure rate that is near the bottom of the league. They’ve also allowed the fourth most yards on the ground (918). The team’s balance – Los Angeles threw the ball 34 times and rushed it 38 times last week – will serve it well against the Cardinals. Look for the Chargers to improve on their 3-2 record by winning and covering the two-point spread Monday night. 

Pick #2: Under 44 Total Points (-108)

The Chargers and their opponents have not totaled more than 39 points this season. The Cardinals and their opponents have totaled 47 or more points five times in six contests. Something has to give. Our experts are banking on the Chargers controlling the game and slowing down the pace a bit. 

Los Angeles has played to the under in six of its last seven games overall, and have gone under eight times in its last 10 road contests. The pick here is for Los Angeles to continue that trend and for the Chargers and Cardinals to total less than 44 points.

Pick #3: JK Dobbins (LAC) 90+ rushing yards (+210)

This is a greedy pick, as you can get Dobbins 70+ rushing yards at -120 or 80+ yards at +135. While those may be safer plays, we think Dobbins is going to go off in the desert Monday night. He went for 135 yards and 131 yards, respectively, in wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers before going quiet and totaling 76 yards on the ground in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers. He rebounded with 96 yards in the win over the Broncos last week, and was averaging just 14 carries per game through four weeks before the career-high 25 last week.

Look for the number of carries to be in a similar range this week against the Cardinals’ struggling defense, and look for Dobbins to rush for north of 90 yards.