Cavaliers vs. Thunder Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/4)

Fact checked at 7:28 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Odds as of 7:00 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Cleveland doesn't wait long for its rematch. Two nights after Oklahoma City won 117-112 in Cleveland, the Cavaliers (4-3) visit Paycom Center for an 8:00 PM ET tip. We think Cleveland's offense, fifth in the league at 119.7 points a game, scores at its normal level against a short-handed Thunder team, and that keeps the game close and pushes the total up. So we're on the Over, the Cavaliers with the points and James Harden from three.

Oklahoma City (5-2) is still missing Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber, and Jaylin Williams is questionable with back spasms on the latest injury report. Alex Caruso missed the first game with an ankle sprain; he's off the report now and expected back. Cleveland is again without Peyton Watson, Jaylon Tyson and Nae'Qwan Tomlin.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 228.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Cavaliers +2.5 (-116)
• Pick #3: James Harden 3+ Threes (-103)

PICK #1: Over 228.5 (-110)

Five of Cleveland's seven games have finished above 228.5. The Cavaliers have scored 121 or more in four of their seven (121, 125, 127 and 136), and they don't stop many people either: they allow 116.1 a game, 23rd in the league. Oklahoma City scored 117 on them in the first meeting. That game ended at 229, half a point over this number, and Donovan Mitchell shot 6-for-17 in it.

The bettors are with us. The Over has 92% of the money on 81% of the bets, and a few books deal 227.5. At -110 it implies a 52.4% chance.

What worries us is Oklahoma City's side of the ledger. Only two of its seven games have cleared 228.5, because the Thunder score 108 a game (25th) and allow 107.7 (seventh-fewest). Caruso's return also gives them a better perimeter defender than Cleveland faced last time. A slow, half-court game built on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isolations sinks this one.

PICK #2: Cavaliers +2.5 (-116)

It took 43 points from Gilgeous-Alexander, on 35 shots in 39 minutes, for Oklahoma City to win by five in Cleveland. The Thunder are starting Kenrich Williams and Ajay Mitchell in place of injured regulars, and when the help around their star hasn't scored, they've lost badly. Their only two losses were 120-96 at Dallas and 119-98 at Houston.

Cleveland covers with a win or a loss by one or two, and -116 implies 53.7%. If the Cavaliers score near their average, the Thunder need a lot more than their usual 108 to win by three or more.

Oklahoma City hasn't lost at home (3-0) and won the paint 50-30 in the first game. On the moneyline, 72% of the money is on the Thunder on 59% of the bets. Another 40-point night from Gilgeous-Alexander probably beats us.

PICK #3: James Harden 3+ Threes (-103)

When Cleveland reaches its scoring average, Harden's threes are usually part of it. He has made at least three in five of seven games this season, on 7.1 attempts a game, and went 3-for-7 in the first meeting. Seven games is a small sample, so we checked the longer record: last season he made three or more in 41 of 70 regular-season games, and in 16 of 26 after Cleveland acquired him.

At -103, the price implies 50.7%, under both of those rates.

The shooting hasn't been sharp. He's at 36% from three (18-for-50), and his two misses came on 2-for-10 against Washington and 1-for-6 against Brooklyn. Caruso's return also puts another strong defender on the perimeter.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.