Cavaliers vs Pistons NBA Playoffs Game 5 Picks

They often say that an NBA playoff series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game, so the Cavaliers vs Pistons series hasn’t begun. After winning Games 1 and 2 by 10 points apiece, Detroit allowed 116 and 112 points to Cleveland in back-to-back losses. This marked the first time the Pistons have allowed 110+ points in consecutive games this postseason. Now, they’ll return to their home arena, where they’ve gone 37-10 this season, in a pivotal Game 5, and you can expect Cade Cunningham and company to want to protect their home court. 

Keep reading to see our Cavaliers vs Pistons predictions, and make sure you’re ready to go before tip-off tonight at 8 pm ET.

Cavaliers vs Pistons Game 5 predictions

• Pick #1: Detroit Pistons -4.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers (-105)
• Pick #2: Under 212.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Made Threes (-145)

PICK #1: Pistons -4.5 over Cavaliers (-105)

The Pistons had this series in their hands before dropping two straight in Cleveland, and now they return home with something to prove. The split in this series has been as predictable as it gets. Cleveland has gone a perfect 6-0 at home this postseason while failing to win a single road game in five attempts. That trend defined their first round run against Toronto, and it has carried right into this matchup.

James Harden averaged just 16 points on 32% shooting with more turnovers than assists in the first two games in Detroit, before bouncing back to 21.5 points on 46% shooting with nearly four times as many assists as turnovers once the series shifted to Cleveland. Expect the road version of Harden to show up tonight. Meanwhile, Detroit is holding opponents to just 99.3 points per game across six home playoff games, and with Cade Cunningham motivated in a winner-takes-the-series-lead spot, the Pistons should reclaim control. Lay the points.

PICK #2: Under 212.5 (-110)

The Under hit in three of four regular-season meetings between these teams and cashed in both Games 1 and 2 in Detroit. Detroit trended toward the Under all season, with 54% of their regular-season games finishing below the number. 

The scoring totals in this series tell a clear story. Cleveland put up big numbers in Games 3 and 4 at Rocket Arena, but a return to Little Caesars Arena should bring those offensive outputs back down considerably. Detroit is holding opponents to just 99.3 points per game across six home playoff games this postseason, and there is little reason to believe the Cavaliers can sustain the kind of offensive production they showed in Ohio once they hit the road. 

Donovan Mitchell is shooting just 30.8% from three in this series despite launching close to 10 attempts per game, and the rest of Cleveland's supporting cast has done little to pick up the slack away from home. Detroit's defense is among the best in the league, and in a high-stakes tiebreaker at home, expect them to clamp down and keep this one well below the number.

PICK #3: Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Made Threes (-145)

Robinson had an uncharacteristically quiet Game 4, but the circumstances explain the dip more than his form does. He had averaged 17 points on 54.3% shooting and 58.3% from three across the first three games, clearing a points prop of 11.5 all three times before a two-shot, four-point night on Monday. That quiet outing coincided with Paul Reed and Caris LeVert dominating off the bench, with coach Bickerstaff riding their hot hands instead.

Back at home, Robinson figures to get back on track. His two biggest scoring outputs of the postseason came in Games 1 and 2 at Little Caesars Arena, where he dropped 19 and 17. Cleveland has no perimeter stopper capable of keeping him off the line, and Robinson has connected on 3+ threes in eight of his 11 playoff appearances this season. Back him to connect from deep at least three times tonight with confidence.