Cavaliers vs. Hawks Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/29)

Fact checked at 7:31 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Odds as of 6:48 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Cleveland visits State Farm Arena tonight for an 8:00 PM ET tip-off, and both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Cavaliers are 3-1 with three straight wins, the latest 121-111 at home over Washington. The Hawks are 2-3 with three straight losses, the latest 129-117 at home to Miami. We think Cleveland is the better team right now. Atlanta is short on bigs, its defense has leaked for three games, and its guard minutes are moving around. That's the case for both picks: Cleveland wins, and CJ McCollum's smaller role keeps his rebound count down.

The market barely separates them. Atlanta is -1.5 on the spread and -115 on the moneyline, Cleveland is -105, and the total is 238.5. Neither team has filed the official injury report for this game yet. Atlanta's injury listing has Mouhamed Gueye (foot) and Henri Veesaar (knee, out for the season) out.

Cavaliers vs. Hawks Predictions

• Pick #1: Cavaliers Moneyline (-105)
• Pick #2: CJ McCollum Under 2.5 Rebounds (-134)

PICK #1: Cavaliers Moneyline (-105)

Atlanta gave up 121, 120 and 129 points in its three losses, two to Houston and one to Miami. Its season mark of 115.2 allowed looks respectable only because of a 128-81 win at Charlotte. Miami scored 70 points in the paint in the last game and won the glass 52-40 while Onyeka Okongwu fought foul trouble all night. With Gueye and Veesaar out, the Hawks have been playing Lu Dort as their backup power forward. Cleveland's projected frontcourt is Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

The Cavaliers score 119.8 points a game, tied for sixth, and they've been winning the close ones: 125-121 over Brooklyn, 127-125 in overtime over Minnesota, then the 10-point win over Washington. We just need a Cleveland win, and -105 implies a 51.2% chance. The moneyline bettors are on the same side, with 61% of the bets and 79% of the money on Cleveland.

There's a fair argument for Atlanta. All three Cleveland wins came at home, and its only road game was a 114-106 loss at Philadelphia. The Cavaliers traveled after their game; the Hawks didn't. Atlanta scores 120.2 a game, fifth in the league, the moneyline has drifted slightly toward the Hawks since both sides opened at -110, and most of the spread money is on Atlanta. These are four and five games of data, so every average here is a small sample. Neither injury report is out, and a late scratch on either side changes the picture.

PICK #2: CJ McCollum Under 2.5 Rebounds (-134)

McCollum has two rebounds or fewer in all five of Atlanta's games: 2, 1, 2, 1 and 2. His minutes went 25, 22, 30 and 30, then 20 against Miami, the night rookie Kingston Flemings scored 23 and closed the game in his spot. Fewer minutes mean fewer chances at a third rebound.

The longer record is the objection. Last season he averaged 3.3 rebounds in 29.8 minutes, which clears this line, but he isn't in that role now. Jalen Johnson, Okongwu and Dyson Daniels are projected to start around him and take most of the boards, and McCollum is there to score. In the second Houston game he had 20 points and one rebound. At -134 the Under implies 57.3%, and none of his five games this season has gone past 30 minutes.

What beats this is a tight finish where Atlanta leans on him late. A few extra minutes or one long rebound gets him to three, and the Over sits at +102. If an Atlanta guard is ruled out, his 30-minute nights could come back.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.