Capitals vs. Predators Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/29)

Fact checked at 7:29 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Odds as of 6:48 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

The Washington Capitals (7-4-0) play the second night of a back-to-back at Bridgestone Arena at 8:00 PM ET, a night after beating Philadelphia 5-2 at home. Nashville (4-3-5) lost its last game 4-3 to the Islanders in a shootout. The moneylines are -110 both ways. The total opened at 5.5 and is now 6.5, and that move came in the same window as Logan Thompson's return from injured reserve and his 23-save start against the Flyers. Thompson and Juuse Saros are both projected to start tonight, not confirmed.

We're betting on two famous shooters who just aren't shooting much right now. Alex Ovechkin is 41, plays third-line minutes and has topped two shots once in 11 games. Steven Stamkos still has a top-line job and a spot on Nashville's top power play, yet he has stayed at two shots or fewer in 8 of 12 games. An ordinary night from each player cashes both bets, and a game full of shots would sink both together.

Capitals vs. Predators Predictions

• Pick #1: Alex Ovechkin Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160)
• Pick #2: Steven Stamkos Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120)

PICK #1: Alex Ovechkin Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160)

Ovechkin's minutes have shrunk, and his shot totals went with them. His 11 games this season, newest first: 2, 1, 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2, 0 and 1. That's 16 shots, with 10 of 11 games at two or fewer. The lone exception was three shots against Seattle.

He's averaging under 14 minutes a night and played 11:59 against Philadelphia on a third line with Ilya Protas and Anthony Beauvillier. Head coach Spencer Carbery has said he's comfortable with Ovechkin somewhere around 13 to 15 minutes. Tonight is also a back-to-back, and Washington has played two of those already this season. Ovechkin had zero shots on the second night both times, against Tampa Bay and Montreal.

The -160 price implies 61.5%. His longer record cuts the other way: last season, with more ice time, he averaged 2.94 shots per game and stayed at two or fewer in just 32 of 80 games. So we're backing the current role over the name, on an 11-game sample. He's still on one of Washington's two power-play groups, and a string of penalties could get him that third shot. If he sits out to rest or gets moved up the lineup before puck drop, the case for this bet is gone.

PICK #2: Steven Stamkos Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120)

Stamkos has seven goals in 12 games, and he's getting them on very few shots. His log, newest first, reads 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 4 and 1. That works out to 24 shots, with 8 of 12 games at two or fewer, including one shot against the Islanders in his last game.

His longer record points the same way. Last season he stayed at two or fewer in 49 of 82 games, about 60%. At -120 the implied probability is 54.5%, so this season's 12 games and last season's full year both clear the price. Washington allows 28.09 shots per game, which doesn't suggest a night of extra volume for him.

The risk is his role. He plays on the top line with Ryan O'Reilly and on the top power-play unit, and he went over this number in two of his last four games, with four shots against Colorado and three against Pittsburgh. Nashville hasn't posted lines for tonight. Player props may settle differently in overtime at different books.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.