Canadiens vs. Stars Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/29)

Fact checked at 7:35 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Odds as of 6:48 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Montreal (7-3-2) has won the first three games of a four-game road trip and finishes it at American Airlines Center tonight, with puck drop at 8:00 PM ET. Dallas (7-4-1) is coming off a 5-1 home loss to New Jersey in which it was outshot 27-18. The Stars have the stingiest defense in hockey, with 25 goals allowed in 12 games (2.08 per game, fewest in the league). Montreal has scored 38 in 12, but it has played its last three without the injured Nick Suzuki.

We think this one goes Dallas's way, and the goalies are why. Jakub Dobes gets the start for Montreal after Jacob Fowler started the last three, and Dobes is 1-2-2 with an .847 save percentage and a 4.46 goals-against average. Jake Oettinger is expected back for Dallas with a .929 save percentage and three shutouts. If the Stars get to Dobes early, Montreal spends the night chasing, and a team that's chasing leans on its defensemen to fire from the point. So we have Dallas on the puck line and Noah Dobson to put at least two shots on goal.

Canadiens vs. Stars Predictions

• Pick #1: Stars -1.5 (+153)
• Pick #2: Noah Dobson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+125)

PICK #1: Stars -1.5 (+153)

Start with the goaltending gap: .847 for Dobes, .929 for Oettinger. Dallas also protects its goalie better than anyone. It allows 2.08 goals per game, first in the NHL, and the club says it has the fewest giveaways per game in the league. Dallas's penalty kill has been one of the league's best and Montreal's power play one of its worst, so the Canadiens can't count on special teams to climb out of a hole.

Montreal's lineup is thinner than its record looks. Suzuki is out and Ivan Demidov is on injured reserve, which leaves two top-six forwards missing. The top line has been shuffled too, with Alex Newhook now centering Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky. Caufield can still hurt you: he has six points in his last five games and leads the team with six goals.

The market has moved toward Dallas since it opened, and the moneyline sits at -162 (a 61.8% implied chance). We'd rather take the puck line. At +153 it implies 39.5%, and it pays far better if Dallas beats a struggling goalie by two.

There are real reasons this could miss. Winning by two is a lot harder than winning, Dallas scores only 2.75 goals per game, and Montreal is 4-1-1 on the road. Oettinger is expected but not confirmed. Dallas is also without defensemen Esa Lindell and Kyle Capobianco. And a late empty-net goal often decides a puck line like this one.

PICK #2: Noah Dobson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+125)

Dobson has had at least two shots on goal in 8 of his last 10 games. Newest first, those 10 read 2, 1, 2, 4, 3, 5, 2, 1, 2 and 2. He's on the top pair with Lane Hutson and is listed on one of Montreal's two power-play units.

This is the shot prop that fits our game. If Dallas gets the lead, Montreal has to push, and more of a trailing team's shots come from the point. Dobson doesn't need the Canadiens to score. He just needs to keep getting pucks through.

His longer record backs it up. He had two or more shots in 44 of 76 games last season, including both games against Dallas. The +125 price implies 44.4%, and he has cleared this line more often than that both this season and last.

Volume is the worry. Dallas allows about as few shots as any team in the league. Dobson's ice time has also slipped to between 19:25 and 19:48 in the three games without Suzuki, though he still got to two shots in two of them, and he opened the season with one shot in each of his first two games. The Under is -170, so the market expects him to fall short more often than not. Player props may settle differently in overtime at different books.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.