Canadiens vs. Capitals Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/14)

Fact checked at 7:45 AM ET, Oct 14, 2026

Odds as of Oct 14, 7:15 AM ET

Montreal (3-2-1) and Washington (3-3-0) meet on the second night of a back-to-back for both clubs. The Canadiens beat Buffalo 4-3 in a shootout at home on Tuesday, their second straight shootout win, after outshooting the Sabres 38-17 and blowing a 3-1 lead in the third period. The Capitals lost 4-2 at Carolina, were outshot 35-22, and have scored five goals in their last two games, both losses. Washington is the -130 home favorite with Montreal at +110, close to where it opened (Washington -132), and the total is 6.5.

The shot counts lean the other way. Montreal takes 28.33 shots a game and allows 26.33. Washington takes 26.67 and allows 29.5. We expect Montreal to have the puck more than the price suggests, with its top defenseman firing from the point while Washington's second line, Ovechkin's line, gets few looks. Washington can win that game on finishing and goaltending, so we are betting the shots and leaving the side alone.

Jakub Dobes is confirmed in Montreal's net. He has not played since Oct. 6 and carries a 4.43 goals-against average and an .857 save percentage over three starts. Charlie Lindgren is expected to start for Washington after Logan Thompson played Tuesday. Mike Matheson missed Tuesday for Montreal and is day to day, and Pierre-Luc Dubois (illness) is out for Washington. Alex Tuch was a game-time decision Tuesday and played 18:50; there is no word yet on Wednesday. Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET at Capital One Arena on MNMT and ESPN+.

Canadiens vs. Capitals Predictions

• Pick #1: Lane Hutson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-120)
• Pick #2: Alex Ovechkin Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105)
• Pick #3: Ilya Protas Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150)

PICK #1: Lane Hutson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-120)

Hutson has cleared 1.5 shots in five of six games while playing between 24:07 and 29:21 a night. His totals, newest first: 2, 2, 4, 2, 3 and 0. The only miss was the opener in Toronto on Sep. 29. He played 27:07 against Buffalo on Tuesday and scored on a snap shot on the power play, where he runs the first unit. If Matheson sits again, Montreal's blue line stays short and Hutson's minutes stay high.

Washington allows 29.5 shots a game, so he should get his chances. The -120 price works out to 54.5%. Blocked shots are what can beat this: Washington blocked 21 at Carolina, and a blocked point shot does not count.

PICK #2: Alex Ovechkin Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105)

Ovechkin is playing his farewell season on the second line, and his minutes have shrunk with the role. He has played between 12:46 and 16:56 in all six games, far below his career average of 20:26, and has stayed under 2.5 shots in five of them: 2, 3, 2, 2, 0 and 1, newest first. The only game over the line was the 3 against Seattle on Oct. 11, the night he logged 16:56.

He is on the first power-play unit, but Washington has drawn only 15 power plays in six games. Montreal allows 26.33 shots a game, so no volume spike is waiting for him. The Over sits at -140, which looks like a price set on the Ovechkin of past seasons. This year's version has averaged 1.67 shots, and at +105 we only need this to land 48.8% of the time. If the Capitals shuffle the lines and he gets 17 minutes, three shots becomes an ordinary night.

PICK #3: Ilya Protas Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150)

Protas, Ovechkin's linemate along with Aliaksei Protas, has taken one shot or fewer in five of six games: 3, 1, 0, 1, 0 and 0, newest first. His ice time tops out at 13:03, and he plays on the second power-play unit (1:24 at Carolina). Washington averages 26.67 shots and Montreal allows 26.33, so nothing in the matchup adds volume.

This is the priciest of the three, and -150 implies 60.0%. His 3 shots at Carolina on Tuesday are a warning, and so is Tuch's status: Tuesday's chart had Tuch on the first line and on the second power-play unit with Protas, so his absence would move minutes around. This pick and the Ovechkin Under share a line and lose together if Washington spends the night in Montreal's end.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.