Bucks vs. Celtics Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/4)

Fact checked at 7:28 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Odds as of 7:00 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

The Bucks (1-6) visit the Celtics (5-2) at TD Garden for a 7:30 PM ET tip, with Boston favored by 11.5. We think Milwaukee keeps this game within reach by winning its share of the rebounds. Taylor Jenkins has built this team around rebounding, and the Bucks have pulled down 53 or more boards in three of their last five games. Boston, meanwhile, may be missing Jayson Tatum (questionable, rest) and Payton Pritchard (questionable, right shoulder contusion). A game that stays competitive keeps everyone's minutes intact, and all three of our picks need exactly that: Paul George carrying Boston's offense, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel'el Ware cleaning up the misses for Milwaukee.

Nearly all of the spread money is on Milwaukee. That doesn't erase the Bucks' recent results. They lost their last three 132-100 to Houston, 136-111 to Cleveland and 112-100 at Minnesota, and another blowout is the one script that sinks this card.

Bucks vs. Celtics Predictions

• Pick #1: Paul George Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116)
• Pick #2: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 5.5 Rebounds (-111)
• Pick #3: Kel'el Ware Over 7.5 Rebounds (-109)

PICK #1: Paul George Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116)

George's averages in his first season in Boston (20.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists) add up to 31.7, more than a point over this line. He has cleared 30.5 in four of six games: 46 at Detroit, 34 against Brooklyn, 32 against Chicago and 31 at Orlando, where he dished eight assists. He missed with 24 against New York and with 23 in the 134-99 rout of Chicago, a night he played just 25 minutes.

Now he gets a Milwaukee defense allowing 124.1 points a game. Only Chicago and Sacramento allow more. If Tatum rests, Boston is without its leading scorer and a 7.9-assist playmaker, and more possessions run through George. He doesn't need that to happen, though. All six of his games came alongside Tatum.

The -116 price implies 53.7%. George is 36 and sat the Houston game for rest, but he isn't on Boston's injury report tonight. What beats him is a score so lopsided that his minutes get cut, the way they did against Chicago.

PICK #2: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 5.5 Rebounds (-111)

At -111 (52.6% implied), we like the price on a forward who has grabbed six or more in six of Milwaukee's seven games. Jaquez averages 7.3 rebounds in 28.1 minutes. He has started the last five, and when Jenkins shook up the lineup at Minnesota, putting Brayden Burries in for Ryan Rollins, Jaquez kept his spot and put up 19 points and eight rebounds.

His only miss came in the 132-100 loss to Houston, when he had four. That's the game we're betting against. Boston shot 39% and went 12-for-42 from three in its own loss at Houston, and a Celtics lineup without Tatum or Pritchard should give a forward who crashes the glass more to chase.

A prop on a player who doesn't suit up is normally voided.

PICK #3: Kel'el Ware Over 7.5 Rebounds (-109)

Ware has eight or more rebounds in each of his last five games (13, 14, 8, 10 and 9, in order). Across seven games he averages 8.7 in 19.3 minutes off the bench. The two misses were the first two games of the season, when he played 14 and 15 minutes.

His coach likes what he sees. "Kel at the five has actually progressed to being something good for us," Jenkins said, and he has talked about pairing Ware with Myles Turner more often. Even in his two 17-minute nights, against Houston and at Minnesota, Ware still got to eight and nine.

At -109 you need him to get there 52.2% of the time. Minutes are the weak point for any bench center. Foul trouble or a runaway Boston lead would cut into them.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.