Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction, NFL Week 5 TNF Odds & Best Bets (10/8)

Fact checked at 6:46 AM ET, Oct 8, 2026

Odds as of Oct 8, 4:39 AM ET; Pick #3 price as of 6:45 AM ET

Tampa Bay is 0-4, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels gets a second straight start with Baker Mayfield out (dislocated right thumb). The first one was a 17-14 home loss to Green Bay in which Daniels went 19-of-27 for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and ran eight times for 55 yards. The defense will also be without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot).

Dallas is 2-2, scoring 30.5 points a game and giving up 28. The Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites, and the total has fallen from 52.5 at the open to 48. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at AT&T Stadium on Prime Video, with the roof making weather a non-factor.

We're not laying the 8.5. Tampa Bay has lost all four games by seven points or fewer, and the stronger bets here are about how Dallas gets its yards, not by how much it wins. The Buccaneers are one of the best run defenses in the league. The Cowboys rank in the bottom third of the league in rushing. Expect Dak Prescott to throw it to CeeDee Lamb and Javonte Williams to spend the night grinding out three- and four-yard carries. All three picks cash in that game.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Predictions

• Pick #1: CeeDee Lamb Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: Javonte Williams Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
• Pick #3: Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards (-160)

PICK #1: CeeDee Lamb Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Sunday at Houston, Lamb caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards and scored the game-winner with 40 seconds left in a 34-30 win. That wasn't a one-off. He has 44, 153, 112 and 189 yards this season on eight, nine, eight and 21 targets, good for 37 catches and 498 yards, and he cleared 80.5 in three of the four.

The usual knock on a receiver Over next to a favorite is that a big lead shuts the passing game down. Washington says otherwise. Dallas led 30-13 early in the fourth quarter of that 37-20 win, and Lamb still finished with eight catches for 153 yards and two touchdowns, the second a 24-yarder late in the fourth.

Tampa Bay's pass defense has held up, allowing 214.2 passing yards a game, a top-10 mark. It will have to keep that up without Winfield, its starting safety. Lamb practiced in full all three days with a thigh issue and carries no game designation.

The -113 price implies 53.1%. He can still come up short. George Pickens and Jake Ferguson both take targets, the opener against the Giants ended at 44 yards, and a lopsided score by halftime would mean fewer throws after it.

PICK #2: Javonte Williams Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Teams haven't run well on Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers allow 78.5 rushing yards a game, third-fewest in the league, at 3.2 yards a carry. Every one of their four opponents won, so those teams weren't giving up on the run to chase points. Dallas comes in averaging 89.5 rushing yards a game at 3.8 a carry.

Williams has 41, 30, 98 and 62 yards on 12, 12, 19 and 19 carries, so three of four landed under 72.5. Earlier quotes had him at 69.5. The move up to 72.5 hands Under bettors three extra yards. The Over is -114, and -110 on our side works out to a 52.4% break-even.

What about a Dallas blowout, with Williams running out the clock? Washington is the test case. Dallas led wire to wire in that 37-20 win, and Williams finished with 12 carries for 30 yards while Prescott went 26-of-31 for 279 yards and four touchdowns. When this offense is humming, it's humming through the air.

His workload is still the danger. Williams has 19 carries in each of his last two games, and at 3.8 yards a pop that lands right around the number. He ran for 98 against Baltimore. All-Pro left guard Tyler Smith (thumb) is questionable after returning to practice from injured reserve and would help the blocking if he plays. Winfield's absence also takes a tackler out of Tampa Bay's run support. And Williams scored three short touchdowns at Houston, so he's the goal-line back even on nights when the yardage is modest.

PICK #3: Dak Prescott 250+ Passing Yards (-160)

Prescott has thrown for 175, 279, 276 and 335 yards, clearing 250 in three of four. He's averaging 37.5 attempts, and Dallas is putting up 266.3 passing yards a game against 89.5 on the ground. Facing the league's third-best run defense, there's little reason for that split to flip.

This is an alt line. The standard number is 263.5 at -113, and dropping to 250 buys about 13 yards of cushion. At -160, it needs to land 61.5% of the time.

Tampa Bay's habit of hanging around actually helps. All four of its losses were by seven or fewer, and a one-score game keeps Prescott throwing into the fourth quarter. Even in the Washington rout he got to 279.

The obstacle is a pass defense allowing 214.2 yards a game, top 10 in the league, though Winfield is out. The Giants game shows how this loses: 175 yards from Prescott and 44 from Lamb. Pick #1 shares that risk with this one.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.