Buccaneers vs Chiefs NFL Week 9 MNF picks

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in Kansas City in a fascinating matchup on Monday Night Football on November 4, 2024. The kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium is 8:20 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on ESPN. This contest features a Buccaneers team that is reeling following a couple of losses, while the Chiefs are fresh off a pair of convincing victories over the 49ers and Raiders.

With both teams looking to win on this big primetime stage, let’s dive into our expert’s predictions and best bets for this Monday Night Football showdown.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Predictions

Pick #1 - Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

Pick #2 - Under 45.5 Total Points (-110)

Pick #3 - Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (+110)

PICK #1: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

This spread beckons a very obvious question for any bettor: sure, the Chiefs are 7-0, but do they deserve this strong of a spread against a formidable Bucs team? Well, even though Kansas City is a bit fortunate to be undefeated, this Chiefs team is starting to hit its stride in recent weeks and should have little trouble dispatching a Buccaneers team that is dealing with multiple injuries at the moment. 

For starters, when Tampa Bay has lost this season, it’s typically been by a big margin. The Broncos and Ravens beat the Buccaneers by double digits, and even the Falcons — a team that is power-rated very closely to the Bucs — won by six and five points in both victories. Recent injuries to major skill position players Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have severely hampered this Tampa Bay offense, while the Buccaneers are also dealing with injuries in their secondary. That’s a cause for concern against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Kansas City can beat teams in many different ways, and so far this season, their defense has led the charge. In three home games, the Chiefs kept opposing offenses to an average of 19.3 points per game. Kansas City also ranks inside the top five in points, yards, yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per pass allowed on the season. Therefore, if Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield had his full complement of skill players, we might look towards Tampa, but the Kansas City defense will likely be far too much for this compromised Buccaneers offense. 

PICK #2: Under 45.5 (-110)

There is a ton of familiarity between these two teams, both of whom have many of the same parts as in their meetings in previous years. And while certain factors could point toward Kansas City’s offense finally waking up against a banged-up Buccaneers defense, Chiefs games have consistently followed an Under game script, and that shouldn’t change in this one.

Through the first seven weeks of the season, it’s clear that the Chiefs offense is a work in progress. The Chiefs rank as a mid-tier operation in most offensive categories. Situationally, this team is still excellent, as they rank near the top of the league in third and fourth-down conversion rates. However, Andy Reid’s continued emphasis on running the ball and the lack of explosiveness in the passing game often makes this offense more methodical rather than one that can break open the game at a moment’s notice. 

Look for the Chiefs defense to suffocate the opponent, while Mahomes and the Kansas City offense do just enough to win the game comfortably without going over this number.

PICK #3: Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception (+110)

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Mahomes is tied with Mayfield for the most interceptions in the NFL this season, tossing a whopping nine picks through seven games. It’s apparent that the best quarterback in football isn’t exactly having his cleanest season throwing the football, and he’s thrown at least one interception in every game to this point.

The fact that we’re still getting plus money on this prop is a welcome surprise, so let’s take Mahomes to throw an interception for the eighth straight week on Monday.