Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL Week 1 MNF Picks

Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL Week 1 MNF Picks

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL regular season concludes with Monday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. It does not get much bigger than a rivalry game in the AFC West between two teams that have very real playoff aspirations. Denver won the division with a 14-3 record in 2025 before coming up short against New England in the conference championship game. Kansas City is looking to bounce back from a rare losing season (6-11).

With Monday’s contest set for 8:15 pm ET on ESPN and ABC, it’s time to break down the odds and discuss the best bets to make. 

Broncos vs Chiefs MNF Predictions 

Pick #1: Denver Broncos +2.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (-105) 

Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-108) 

Pick #3: J.K. Dobbins (DEN) Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

PICK #1: Broncos +2.5 over Chiefs (-105) 

Kansas City heads into the 2026 campaign with more questions, which is why it is – for once – not among the top favorites to win the Super Bowl. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in Week 15, but the Chiefs were already 6-7 when disaster struck and faced an uphill battle to make the playoffs with or without Mahomes. The Texas Tech product is good to go for 2026, but it’s hard to see him immediately returning to peak form – especially against a defense like Denver’s. Moreover, tight end Travis Kelce is clearly on the decline at 36 years old.

The Broncos’ quarterback is also coming off an injury, as Bo Nix sustained a fractured ankle in the divisional round of the playoffs. But an ACL a fractured ankle is not. Eight months later, Nix will almost certainly be 100 percent for Week 1. He also has a new weapon in receiver Jaylen Waddle, whom Denver acquired from Miami for a first-round pick. Even on the road, the Broncos have a good chance to win this game outright. 

PICK #2: Under 43.5 (-108) 

The Broncos ranked in the top five of pretty much every defensive category last season, including #1 in sack rate. Head coach Sean Payton’s squad is largely running it back on that side of the ball, which makes sense since there is no reason to mess with success. Among Denver’s returning stars are cornerback Pat Surtain II and linebacker Nik Bonito. Denver had no trouble taking care of Kansas City in both head-to-head matchups last season, limiting Mahomes and company to a mere 450 total yards of offense on those two occasions. The Broncos won those games 22-19 (with Mahomes on the field) and 20-13 (without Mahomes).

On the other side of the ball, Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should once again have a strong unit on his hands. Led by Chris Jones, the front seven is formidable – which will help make up for the departure of cornerback Trent McDuffie. Like last season, it would be no surprise if the two offenses struggle in this matchup.

PICK #3: J.K. Dobbins (DEN) Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Dobbins played in 10 games last season; he surpassed this number on nine occasions. In fact, the Ohio State product rushed for at least 61 yards in nine games – including more than 100 twice. Dating back to 2024, Dobbins has cleared this number in 15 of his last 17 regular-season contests. Denver is a run-first team to begin with, and that should be the case to an even greater extent with Nix coming off a bad ankle injury. The Chiefs were solid but nothing special against the run last season, allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry.