Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction, NFL Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:16 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Before Week 4, the Chargers were 2.5-point home favorites in this game. Now they're 0-4 and getting 3.5 from the Broncos (2-2), and the total has slid from 44.5 to 42. Blame the offensive line. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is on injured reserve after ankle surgery. Right tackle Joe Alt (neck) is out, guard Kayode Awosika is out, and Trey Pipkins III and Trevor Penning are on injured reserve. That leaves right guard Cole Strange as the only veteran expected to start, with four rookies around him: Logan Taylor, Jake Slaughter, Jacob Spomer and Travis Burke. Slaughter has played every snap this season. The other three have 97 offensive snaps between them.

Justin Herbert has already been sacked 12 times, eight of them in the three games Slater and Alt both finished. His receivers are thinning out too. Quentin Johnston is out, and Ladd McConkey, who aggravated a foot injury at Seattle last Sunday and did not practice all week, is listed as questionable. So is tight end Charlie Kolar (forearm).

Denver isn't healthy either. Cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss are both out, and Sean Payton has taken back the play calling for an offense that sits 27th in scoring at 18.5 points per game. Bettors can't agree on what to do with it: 60% of the spread bets are on the Chargers and 73% of the moneyline bets are on Denver. We see a slow, low-scoring game, with the Chargers running the ball to keep their rookies out of obvious passing downs. Both picks below win in that game.

Kickoff is Sunday at 4:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on CBS. McConkey's status won't be settled until the inactives are announced before kickoff.

Broncos vs. Chargers Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 42 (-107)
• Pick #2: Justin Herbert Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-111)

PICK #1: Under 42 (-107)

Fourteen, 14, 16 and 23. That is the Chargers' scoring this season, 16.8 points per game and 29th of 32, and the first three of those totals came with Slater and Alt both healthy. Now there are four rookies up front. Denver can't throw stones: its offense is 27th at 18.5 points per game, with outputs of 10, 20, 30 and 14. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in offensive EPA per play, and the Broncos' 17 pass plays of 15 yards or more are tied for the fourth fewest in the NFL. Six of the eight games these teams have played this season finished with 41 combined points or fewer.

What we like most is how the Chargers have played from behind. They kept running. They had 32, 28 and 32 rushing attempts in their last three games, all losses, and they average 121.5 rushing yards per game against a Denver defense that allows 142.8. With a rookie line in pass protection, handing off is the safer plan, and every handoff keeps the clock moving. At -107 the Under has to come in 51.7% of the time, which is close to a coin flip for a game between two offenses this bad.

It can go wrong. The Chargers allow 26.5 points per game and Denver 23.5, and the two games that went over went well over, at 53 and 56 points. The Chargers also have 10 giveaways, tied for the most in the league, and a short field is the easiest way for a weak offense to score. Then there are the second halves from last week. Denver lost Surtain and Moss at San Francisco and gave up 21 points after halftime, and the Chargers scored 17 after halftime at Seattle with Alt already out.

PICK #2: Justin Herbert Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Herbert is averaging 204 passing yards, and that was with more help than he will have Sunday. Johnston played at least three quarters of the offensive snaps every week and is out. McConkey had 183 of Herbert's 627 yards in the first three games, was held without a catch at Seattle and has not practiced since. If McConkey sits, the top targets are Tre' Harris, tight end Oronde Gadsden and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

The game logs read 209, 192, 226 and 189, so this line sits right on what Herbert has been doing, and the price of -111 (52.6% implied) says the market knows it. We still think the number is a little high. Herbert has not attempted more than 34 passes in a game even though the Chargers lost all four, which tells you how this staff wants to play. Only two quarterbacks have been sacked more, and he has faced the second-highest pressure rate in the league. Denver held Patrick Mahomes to 184 yards and Trevor Lawrence to 189. Brock Purdy threw for 218 on 30 attempts last week, and Matthew Stafford needed 55 attempts for his 390.

Denver's secondary is the worry. Jahdae Barron and Kris Abrams-Draine start at cornerback in place of Surtain and Moss, and Herbert went 14 of 17 for 153 yards in the second half at Seattle while trailing by at least two scores. If Denver builds that kind of lead, this pick and the Under are both in trouble. Each one needs the Broncos' offense to stay as quiet as it has been.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.