Broncos vs Chargers NFL Week 16 TNF picks

Playoff seeding is on the line tomorrow night as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Denver Broncos in an AFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football. Denver is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Broncos have won four straight and, at 9-5, have secured their first winning record in eight years. More importantly, they are on the verge of ending the second-longest playoff drought in the league. They take on a Chargers squad that defeated them in Denver earlier this season, 23-16. However, Los Angeles has been scuffling of late. The team has lost two straight and three of their last four, and is averaging less than 16 points across its last three contests. With the Kansas City Chiefs well ahead in the division race, the Broncos and Chargers, currently seeded sixth and seventh in the AFC, are battling for playoff positioning. 

Let’s get into our TNF predictions and best bets for Broncos vs Chargers.

Broncos vs Chargers Predictions

Pick #1: Denver Broncos +2.5 over Los Angeles Chargers (-105)

Pick #2: Under 42.5 (-105)

Pick #3: Ladd McConkey over 64.5 receiving yards (-114)

Pick #1: Broncos +2.5 over Chargers (-105)

Last week’s 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts may be the best indicator yet that the Broncos are on a roll. It was the team’s fourth straight win but the offense was a wreck, totaling just 193 yards. Bo Nix threw for just 130 yards. He had three touchdown passes, but he also had three interceptions. Denver got the job done defensively, however. The Broncos took advantage of five Indianapolis turnovers, showing they can grab wins in weeks when Nix and the offense are not producing. Over the previous three weeks, Nix averaged 275 yards passing in wins over Atlanta, Las Vegas and Cleveland. The Broncos have the best record against the spread in the NFL at 11-3. That includes a 6-1 ATS record on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS record in their last five games. Denver has won 13 of the past 20 contests with the Chargers. 

Los Angeles was trounced last week at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 40-17. The defense, reliable all season, surrendered 506 total yards, including 223 on the ground. However, Los Angeles has only allowed 20 or more points four times this season. Their red-zone defense, which has allowed touchdowns just 40% of the time, is the best in the league.

Los Angeles took a 23-16 decision in Denver in Week 6. The Chargers jumped out to a 23-0 lead after three quarters before a furious Broncos comeback. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games, 9-4-1 ATS on the season, and 4-2-1 ATS at home. However, Los Angeles is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games against top-10 defenses. Expect this division rivalry game to be tight throughout and for the Broncos to stay within a couple of points, if not win the game outright.

Pick #2: Under 42.5 (-115)

Despite last week’s performance, the Chargers’ defense is still right there with the best in the league. In fact, both teams are tied for the NFL lead, along with the Philadelphia Eagles, with just 17.6 points allowed per game. Neither side is tearing it offensively and the two totaled just 39 points in their earlier matchup this season. The two teams have played to the under in 10 of the last 11 games hosted by the Chargers, while Los Angeles has played to the under 11 times in its past 16 games. With playoff seeding on the line, expect a similar total this time around.

Pick #3: Ladd McConkey Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

After the Chargers traded veteran Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears in March, a huge void was left at the top of Los Angeles’ receiver tree. Young receivers Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston were both expected to compete for WR1, but Ladd McConkey, the rookie, overtook both of them.  

The second-round pick out of Georgia leads the team with 63 catches for 873 yards, and he’s second behind Johnston with five receiving touchdowns. His production has amped up of late, with three games of 83 yards or more in the last four contests, including two 100+ yard outbursts in wins over Atlanta and Cincinnati. He had a more modest five catches for 58 yards in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay, but look for McConkey to creep back up in primetime and go for more than 64.5 yards receiving against the Broncos.