Broncos vs Bills NFL Super Wild Card Weekend picks

The Buffalo Bills will begin another bid for an elusive Super Bowl triumph when they entertain the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon as part of Super Wild Card Weekend in the NFL playoffs. As the No. 2 seed in the AFC, Buffalo (13-4) is among the favorites to win the conference and lift the Lombardi Trophy. Denver (10-7) waited until Week 18 to wrap up the AFC’s third and final wild-card spot.

With Sunday’s game set for 1 PM ET on CBS, it’s time to look at the best bets to make. 

Broncos vs Bills Predictions 

Pick #1 – Bills -8.5 (-108) 

Pick #2 – Under 47.5 (-108) 

Pick #3 – Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

See the latest odds, line movements and trends here.

PICK #1: Bills -8.5 (-108) 

It’s Super Bowl or bust for the Bills. After all, they have never won it all (0-4 all-time in Super Bowls), and they are well-equipped to finally get the job done this year. Buffalo boasts the soon-to-be NFL MVP in Josh Allen, and the second seed in the conference means it will be playing at home at least until the AFC Championship. Although the Bills have nothing more than the Lombardi Trophy on their minds, they have more than enough recent playoff experience to focus on the task and hand and refuse to overlook Denver.

That is bad news for the Broncos, who have overachieved massively just to make the playoffs. They are not blessed with a ton of talent, and it should not be overlooked that only two of their 10 regular-season victories came against playoff opponents. Bo Nix is a nice piece for the future, but I don't have much faith in a rookie quarterback going into a hostile postseason environment. 

Rookie QBs making their first playoff start against an opposing QB with prior playoff experience are 19-37-1 against the spread dating back to 2002. It doesn’t help Nix that Buffalo is stellar against the pass and getting healthier in the secondary, highlighted by the return of cornerback Taron Johnson. Look for Sean McDermott's squad to win and cover. 

PICK #2: Under 47.5 (-108) 

This is not a Denver offense built to score quickly with explosive plays. The fact that head coach Sean Payton’s team is a heavy underdog gives him all the more reason to slow things down offensively, run the clock and shorten the game as much as possible. That, of course, makes the under an intriguing play.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills keep the ball on the ground at one of the highest rates in the league. If they build an early lead, as many expect on Sunday, they will be even more inclined to make that their plan. The game script combined with a favorable matchup for Buffalo’s defense against Denver’s offense point to the Under. 

PICK #3: Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Allen often takes matters into his own hands, which is especially the case in the playoffs – when the importance of each game and each play is ratcheted up in a major way. In two postseason contests last year, Allen rushed for 74 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers and 72 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Dating back to the 2020 AFC Championship, the former Wyoming standout has gained at least 66 yards on the ground in five of his last seven playoff appearances.

Allen heads into these playoffs on the heels of a brilliant regular season – including with his feet – that has him priced as a significant favorite to win NFL MVP. The 28-year-old racked up 531 rushing yards in 16 games, including at least 50 yards in four of his last seven. It’s also worth noting that Denver led the league by a mile with 63 sacks. If Allen is frequently under pressure, he may need to tuck it and run to an even greater extent than he typically keeps it himself.