Broncos vs. 49ers Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:35 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 8:00 AM ET

The 49ers are 3-0 and host the Broncos (2-1) on Sunday, Oct 4, at 4:25 PM ET at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, on CBS. San Francisco scores 32.7 points a game, second in the league, and Brock Purdy has a 133.1 passer rating without taking a sack. Denver arrives off a 30-26 win over the Rams in which it trailed 16-0 at halftime. The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites (-117) with a -150 moneyline, and some books are dealing -3. The spread hasn't budged since the open, though the price on San Francisco has gone from -110 to -117. The total is a different story: it opened at 46.5 and sits at 48.5.

San Francisco's front is thin. Nick Bosa, defensive tackle James Thompson Jr. and defensive end Mykel Williams are out, while Mike Evans (ribs), Dre Greenlaw, Keion White and Jaden Dugger are questionable, with Evans a game-time decision. Denver ruled out only linebacker Dondrea Tillman. Inactives arrive about 90 minutes before kickoff, around 2:55 PM ET, and they weren't out when we checked. Expect close to 90 degrees at kickoff with a light breeze and no rain, nothing that should change how either team plays.

Broncos vs. 49ers Predictions

• Pick #1: Christian McCaffrey Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: J.K. Dobbins Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

PICK #1: Christian McCaffrey Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Denver can't stop the run. The Broncos have allowed 431 rushing yards in three games against the Chiefs, Jaguars and Rams, 143.7 a game, which ranks 30th, and last week the Rams' running backs went 21 times for 103 yards (4.9 a carry) in Denver.

McCaffrey took over the San Francisco backfield last week. Against Arizona he was on the field for 83% of the snaps and got 15 carries for 75 yards, while Kaelon Black, who had 14 and 7 carries in the first two weeks, got 4. On the season McCaffrey has 166 yards on 35 carries, 4.7 a carry, so 65.5 takes about 14 attempts. That's roughly 66 yards, which is not much cushion. He has gone 68, 23 and 75, clearing this number twice. At -113 the Over implies a 53.1% chance, a fair ask against a run defense this soft. The prop price is the one posted at 8:06 AM ET.

What worries me is volume. A 2.5-point spread says nothing about how the afternoon unfolds, and McCaffrey got only 10 carries in each of the two blowouts: 68 yards in a 20-point win, 23 in a 22-point win. Twelve carries at his rate is 57 yards. The line also slid from 68.5 at 7:12 AM ET to 65.5, so the Over is easier to reach, but the market now expects less than it did at 7:12. Prefer a side? The 49ers moneyline is -150 and 49ers -2.5 is -117, consensus prices as of 8:00 AM ET.

PICK #2: J.K. Dobbins Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

His season high is 49 yards. Dobbins has 121 yards on 35 carries, 3.5 a carry, from games of 36 yards on 8 carries, 36 on 10 and 49 on 17 against the Rams, so 60.5 asks for about 18 carries at his own pace.

The workload is real. Jonah Coleman is on injured reserve with an Oct 25 return date, which makes Dobbins' 17-carry role from Week 3 today's role, with RJ Harvey (six catches last week) as the other back. Seventeen carries at his rate gets him to about 59, less than two yards short. Denver's run game is the problem: 81 rushing yards a game, 31st, at 3.6 a carry, and 23, 32 and 21 yards on the ground in its three first halves. San Francisco allows 105.7 rushing yards a game, 15th, and in its one game without Bosa and Thompson, Arizona ran 27 times for 93 yards, 3.4 a carry. The -109 price works out to 52.2%.

This one is close, and the case against it is easy to make. One extra carry or half a yard more per attempt puts him over, and Arizona's lead back did run for 90 on 21 carries against this same front. Sean Payton said this week he thinks Dobbins is ready for a larger role, and San Francisco is down three defensive linemen. Falling behind won't necessarily cut his work either, since his 17 carries came while Denver trailed 16-0 at halftime. For a passing angle on the same stalled offense, Bo Nix Under 220.5 passing yards (-111) is the alternative. Both picks get hurt by the same game: Denver running well and playing from in front means fewer carries for McCaffrey and more for Dobbins. This prop price is also from 8:06 AM ET.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.