Braves vs. Dodgers Prediction, MLB NLDS Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (10/3)

Fact checked at 9:30 AM ET, Oct 3, 2026

Odds as of Oct 3, 6:12 AM ET

Los Angeles opens its bid for a third straight title with Tarik Skubal on the mound. The Dodgers (100-62) are the National League's No. 2 seed, sat out the first round, and on Friday picked the left-hander over Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Game 1. Atlanta (94-68), the No. 3 seed, needed all three games to get past Philadelphia, closed it out 6-2 on Thursday, and still hasn't named a starter for the opener of this best-of-five. The club's game preview lists TBD and sketches two plans: left-hander Brent Suter opens and Grant Holmes follows, or Holmes takes the first few innings himself. One lineup projection has right-hander JR Ritchie instead.

Atlanta has reasons to like this matchup anyway. The Braves took five of six from the Dodgers in the regular season and outscored them 26-15.

The market doesn't care much. Consensus has the Dodgers -220 on the moneyline, -1.5 at -105 on the run line, and a total of 8.5. Early numbers after Atlanta's clincher had Los Angeles a little past -200 with a total of 8, and one book opened at Dodgers -173 and 7.5. It will be hot: sunny and about 99 degrees at first pitch in an open-air park, and still climbing.

Game 1 is Saturday at 4:00 PM ET at Dodger Stadium on FOX.

Braves vs. Dodgers Predictions

• Pick #1: Dodgers -1.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Over 8.5 (-103)
• Pick #3: Austin Riley Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-172)

PICK #1: Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

Atlanta used nine pitchers in three games over three days to beat the Phillies. Manager Walt Weiss put it plainly on Friday: "We had to empty the tank." Now that staff gets a rested Skubal.

The Braves are patching. Chris Sale isn't available before Game 2 and Tyler Mahle not before Game 3. Ray Kerr, who opened Thursday's clincher, is out too. The club's preview names Suter as a possible opener, with Holmes (28 pitches on Thursday) behind him or starting.

Skubal, meanwhile, has a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings, and a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts since joining the Dodgers. His last time out, Sept. 25 in San Francisco, he threw seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts on 75 pitches. He's backed by a team that allowed 600 runs, fewest in the majors. And Atlanta was weaker against lefties all year: a .696 OPS against them, .730 against right-handers.

At -220 the moneyline is a lot to lay. The run line was -105 on the consensus price as of 6:12 AM ET after opening at plus money at some books, so the better number is gone, but this is still the cheaper way in.

Does it matter if Atlanta names a real starter? Not much. The case is about Skubal and the Dodgers keeping runs off the board, and someone like Ritchie (4.91 ERA this season) would only help. Know your book's rules, though: some treat run lines as listed-pitchers bets, voided if either listed starter doesn't go, so the clean time to bet is after Atlanta announces. Extra innings count.

I don't want to oversell it. Skubal pitched in none of the six meetings, but he did face this lineup once with Detroit and gave up two earned runs in seven innings. The Braves allowed 626 runs, fifth-fewest in baseball, and their bullpen posted a 3.44 ERA, so a bullpen game isn't a surrender. A one-run Dodgers win kills this ticket, and Los Angeles covered the run line in just two of its last five regular-season games.

One note on how the card fits: a Skubal-driven win is exactly the game where the Over below has the hardest time.

PICK #2: Over 8.5 (-103)

Here's the Braves' pitching plan, as far as anyone knows it: TBD. The club's preview floats an opener followed by Holmes, who could give "at least a couple of innings," or Holmes starting. Behind that is the bullpen that just carried the Wild Card Series. Didier Fuentes pitched in all three games, 46 pitches in three days, and the club says he might not be available. Sale threw 95 pitches Tuesday and 21 more Thursday. Mahle threw 95 Wednesday. Neither one is there to eat innings.

The Dodgers can take advantage. They scored 801 runs, fourth-most in the majors; Atlanta scored 742. Add sunny weather, about 99 degrees, in an open-air park.

The price has already moved. The total opened at 8 and sits at 8.5, Over -103 on the consensus price as of 6:12 AM ET, and that half-run is one you no longer get.

Wait on the announcement if you can. A long Holmes start (3.44 ERA over 151 2/3 innings) would knock out much of the bullpen argument; Ritchie (4.91 ERA in 73 1/3 innings) would help it. Some books grade totals as listed-pitchers bets too, cancelled if a listed starter doesn't pitch. Extra innings count.

Of the three picks, this one has the strongest argument against it. Skubal pitches for the stingiest run-prevention team in baseball, and Atlanta was fifth-stingiest. The Braves posted a .696 OPS against lefties, and the bullpen's 3.44 ERA says the patched staff may hold up better than it looks. The Dodgers also scored only 14 runs in their last five regular-season games, and none of those five games reached eight total runs.

To avoid depending on Atlanta scoring off Skubal, take Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-125) instead. And remember the overlap with the run line: a 3-1 Dodgers win cashes Pick 1 and loses this. Both hit only in something like 7-2 or 6-3, a Dodgers win by two or more with nine runs on the board.

PICK #3: Austin Riley Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-172)

Riley has finished under this number in four of his last five starts. His hits, runs and RBIs, most recent first: 1, 1, 5, 0, 0. He's 2-for-17 in that stretch. The three Wild Card games had him seventh, sixth and seventh in the order; the two before that, fourth and fifth.

It fits his season, too: his production ran about 20% below league average. The club's projected lineup has him at third, batting sixth, which works out to about four trips to the plate (he had 22 plate appearances across those five starts). Those trips come against a lefty who has held hitters to .217 this year, with the majors' best run-prevention staff behind him.

At -172 as of 6:23 AM ET, the implied probability is 63.2%. His longer record lands right there: the Under won five of his last eight starts, 62.5%, and three of the six where he hit sixth through eighth. So this isn't a bargain. It's a fair price on a hitter who's been below average all year against a pitcher who's tough on everybody.

The danger is one swing. That 5 was a three-run homer off the Phillies' closer in the eighth inning of the Wild Card opener, and Riley has homered in three of his last eight starts. A home run by itself counts three toward a number he only needs two to clear. He's a right-handed bat against a lefty, he drew four walks over those five starts, and a walk that comes around to score counts. Weiss after the opener: "Austin Riley has been a great postseason player." The Over pays +129.

The lineup isn't out yet. No Riley, no pick. If you'd rather go elsewhere, Ronald Acuña Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145) has the same four-of-five record, assuming he starts. We took Riley because his cold stretch matches his season, while Acuña hit .307 and slugged .602 in September.

This one rides on the same Dodgers pitching as the run line. It doesn't really fight the Over, since Los Angeles can supply most of the runs.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.