Blackhawks vs. Lightning Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (11/5)

Fact checked at 6:38 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Odds as of 6:13 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Chicago plays the second night of a back-to-back at Benchmark International Arena, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET. The Blackhawks lost 5-3 at Florida the night before, their fourth straight loss (0-3-1), and they are 4-11-1 overall and 0-6-1 on the road. Tampa Bay is 9-3-2 and has won all seven of its home games. The Lightning are -417 and Chicago +317. We expect Tampa Bay to win a game in which a tired Chicago team creates very little, and all three picks are built on that.

Spencer Knight played in Florida, and Chicago hasn't named a starter for tonight. Projections are split between Knight and Arvid Soderblom. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected in goal for Tampa Bay. Patrick Kane (upper body) did not make the trip, and Bowen Byram is on injured reserve.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 6.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: Blackhawks Team Total Under 2.5 (-136)
• Pick #3: Anthony Cirelli Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-185)

PICK #1: Under 6.5 (-115)

Chicago has 36 goals in 16 games, 2.25 a night, and just 14 in seven road games. Goals have also been scarce in Tampa: the Lightning have allowed 15 in seven home games, and five of those seven finished with six goals or fewer. The Under at -115 implies 53.5%.

Tampa Bay can get most of the way to seven by itself, so the bet really depends on Chicago scoring at about its road average. The bigger tickets agree, with 53% of the money on the Under from only 35% of the bets.

The danger is Chicago's own net. Soderblom is a real possibility on the second night, and the Blackhawks' road games have averaged nearly seven goals because they give up so many. If Tampa Bay gets to five, Chicago has to be held to one.

PICK #2: Blackhawks Team Total Under 2.5 (-136)

Chicago has scored two or fewer in 10 of 16 games. Tampa Bay has held five of its seven home opponents to two or fewer. At -136 this needs to hit 57.6% of the time, and both records clear it.

Tonight the Blackhawks are missing Kane, playing for the second time in two nights and trying to end a four-game skid against a team that hasn't lost at home. They did score three in Florida, but one came short-handed and they never led. On the road they've topped this number in three of seven games.

PICK #3: Anthony Cirelli Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-185)

Cirelli has stayed at two shots or fewer in 11 of 14 games this season, 22 shots in all, and this isn't a short hot streak. Last season he did it in 54 of 71 games, about 76%, in similar minutes as a two-way center, mostly 15 to 20 a night. The -185 price implies 64.9%, so his longer record beats it by about 11 points.

He centers the second line between Brandon Hagel and Gage Goncalves on the most recent lines, while Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov on the top line take most of Tampa Bay's shots. If the Lightning win the way we expect, without needing a barrage, this should cash.

He did put five shots on Detroit in his last game, and a tired Chicago team can give up volume. At -185 there isn't much margin, and a move onto the top power-play unit would change the math.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.