Bills vs. Texans NFL Week 12 TNF Best Picks

Bills vs. Texans NFL Week 12 TNF Best Picks

Thursday Night Football in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is an AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans. It is a crucial contest for wild-card positioning in the conference, although the Bills’ division-title hopes are certainly well within reason. Buffalo comes in at 7-3, while Houston is sporting an even 5-5 record. The Texans have won two straight games to get back into the playoff picture. With Thursday’s contest set to kick off at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video, it’s time to break down the odds and discuss our Bills vs Texans best bets. 

Bills vs Texans TNF Predictions 

Pick #1: Houston Texans +5.5 over Buffalo Bills (-110) 

Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-110) 

Pick #3: Woody Marks Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110) 

PICK #1: Texans +5.5 over Bills (-110) 

Houston’s defense is incredible. It is No. 1 in the NFL by a mile (258.1 yards per game allowed), No. 1 in scoring (16.3 points per game allowed), No. 3 against the pass (171.0 yards) and No. 3 against the run (87.1 yards). The Texans are also tied for fifth in turnovers forced with 16. It is true that their offense is nothing special, and quarterback CJ Stroud remains in the league’s concussion protocol, leaving him questionable for Thursday. Regardless of whether it’s Stroud or Davis Mills under center, the home team probably won’t score a ton of points. But it may not have to given the strength of its defense and because Buffalo is less formidable on the road than it is at home.

The Bills have lost two of their last three road games, including by 10 points at Atlanta and by 17 at Miami – two teams that have been among the NFL’s worst this season. Buffalo did well to defeat Tampa Bay this past weekend, but neither team played particularly well – especially on defense – and they combined to commit five turnovers (three by the Bills). Look for Houston to be competitive from start to finish in this matchup. 

PICK #2: Bills vs. Texans Under 43.5 (-110) 

The under correlates nicely with Texan +5.5, because they almost certainly would not be able to keep up with the Bills in a high-scoring shootout. A positive game script for Houston calls for dominating on defense while controlling the clock with conservative, mistake-free football on offense. Chances are good that it will be Mills running the show on Thursday. He has been solid but unspectacular in four appearances (three starts) this season, completing 60 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one interception.

Moreover, this should be a decent matchup for Buffalo’s defense. It is much better against the run than it is against the pass, while Houston is far more efficient moving the ball through the air than on the ground. The Texans’ strength – relatively speaking – will be going up against the Bills’ strength.

PICK #3: Woody Marks Over 56.5 rushing yards (-110) 

It is true that Houston has struggled to run the football in 2025, but a date with Buffalo should be just what the doctor ordered. The Bills are horrendous against the run, allowing 153.0 rushing yards per game (second-most in the NFL) on 5.4 yards per carry (also second-most). Marks may be able to take advantage. The rookie out of USC has gained at least 62 yards in three of the last seven games and in two of the last four. In addition to Buffalo being inept against the run, the Texans have even more reason to keep the ball on the ground in an effort to milk the clock and relegate Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense to the sideline.