Bills vs. Rams Prediction, NFL Week 5 MNF Odds & Best Bets (10/12)

Fact checked at 8:54 AM ET, Oct 12, 2026

Odds as of Oct 12, 8:12 AM ET

Buffalo (3-1) scores plenty and gives plenty back through the air. The Bills average 31.75 points a game, yet Houston, Detroit, the Chargers and New England have thrown for 274 yards a game against them, and their last outing was a 29-26 home loss to New England as a 7-point favorite. Los Angeles (2-2) arrives off a 24-20 win at Philadelphia, where it trailed 20-10 going into the fourth quarter and Matthew Stafford threw 51 passes.

Aaron Donald, who came out of retirement in August, sat out the Philadelphia game with back soreness and carries no designation this week, and neither do tight end Colby Parkinson or cornerback Jaylen Watson. Safety Quentin Lake is questionable with a hip injury, though Sean McVay said he is trending in the right direction. Buffalo has ruled out defensive tackle Ed Oliver and receiver Joshua Palmer. DJ Moore (shoulder) practiced in a non-contact jersey and is questionable, along with cornerback Dee Alford and defensive lineman Landon Jackson. Inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite at -104, with Buffalo +3.5 at -117. The moneyline is Rams -182, Bills +150, and the total is 54.5. This line opened Rams -3 with a 53.5 total on Sep. 29, before Week 4. Both teams have been off since Oct. 4, and Buffalo crosses three time zones for an 8:15 PM ET kickoff Monday at SoFi Stadium on ESPN and ABC.

We think this game runs through Stafford. Put the spread and the total together and the market has Los Angeles scoring about 29 points, and Buffalo's pass defense is where they should come from. Kyren Williams has grown into a real piece of that passing game. On the other side, Buffalo's throws go to Dalton Kincaid and the wide receivers, while Dawson Knox plays a lot of snaps and sees very few targets. All three picks cash in that game.

Bills vs. Rams Predictions

• Pick #1: Matthew Stafford Over 282.5 Passing Yards (-111)
• Pick #2: Kyren Williams Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
• Pick #3: Dawson Knox Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

PICK #1: Matthew Stafford Over 282.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Stafford has cleared 300 in three straight games: 327 on 31 attempts against the Giants, 390 on 55 at Denver and 317 on 51 at Philadelphia. He did it with Puka Nacua sidelined in Weeks 2 and 3 and with Nacua back in Week 4, and Davante Adams has played every game. Nacua has no designation this week. The one miss was the opener, 155 yards on 25 attempts in a 27-7 loss to San Francisco.

A Buffalo defense giving up 274 passing yards a game is a good draw for that form. The -111 price implies 52.6%, and we have him clearing it more often than that.

What could go wrong is game script. The 55 and 51 attempts came in a loss and a fourth-quarter comeback, and if the Rams build a lead at home they can lean on the run. He has also thrown six interceptions in four games.

PICK #2: Kyren Williams Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Williams' targets have climbed from 3 and 2 to 7 and 13, and his receiving yards went 24, 12, 70 and 67, over this number in three of four. He played 83% of the snaps at Philadelphia, up from 64%, 55% and 71%, while Blake Corum got 15%. A healthy receiver room hasn't squeezed him out: in the two games Nacua and Adams both played, he saw 3 targets and then 13.

At -116 his implied chance is 53.7%. The catch is that his two big games came in a loss at Denver and in a Philadelphia game the Rams trailed for most of the second half. A comfortable lead would push his work toward the ground, and that is the same scenario that hurts Stafford, so these two picks win and lose together.

PICK #3: Dawson Knox Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Knox is on the field a lot and barely gets the ball. He has played between 61% and 76% of Buffalo's snaps in every game and drawn one or two targets each week, six in all. He caught all six, for 7, 5, 5 and 13 yards, so he's under this line in three of four. Buffalo's targets have gone to Khalil Shakir (23), Moore (20), Kincaid (19) and Keon Coleman (16). Los Angeles has allowed 153.8 passing yards a game against San Francisco, the Giants, Denver and Philadelphia.

That -115 price works out to 53.5%. The risk: with Palmer out and Moore questionable, there are targets up for grabs, and Week 4 showed that two catches can get him past 12.5. If Buffalo falls behind and throws more, he could get another look or two. Still, he has drawn one or two targets in every game so far.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.