Bills vs Falcons NFL Week 6 MNF picks

Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season will conclude with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The action kicks off at 7:15 PM ET on ESPN with the Atlanta Falcons playing host to the Buffalo Bills in a matchup between a couple of teams coming off very different performances. The Bills suffered their first loss of the season at home to the Patriots while the Falcons enter this one off their bye, having beaten the Commanders 34-27 in Week 4. Which team will come out on top in this inter-conference matchup? Let’s get into our Bills vs Falcons best bets for MNF.

Bills vs Falcons predictions

• Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over Buffalo Bills (-110)
• Pick #2: Over 49.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120)

PICK #1: Falcons +4.5 over Bills (-110)

Ordinarily, this would be a spot in which I’d look to back the Bills given that Buffalo is coming off a rare home loss and should be primed for a bounce-back performance. However, this is a bit of a tricky spot for the Bills, with Josh Allen and company having to hit the road for a date with a Falcons team coming off a bye week. 

Atlanta is a difficult matchup for the Bills, as the Falcons are one of the best rushing offenses in football. Buffalo’s defense has been a major weakness for this team, with the Bills sitting at 29th in opponent EPA per rush and 27th in rushing yards allowed. If the Falcons are able to stay ahead of the chains on the ground, Atlanta should consistently generate quality drives and put up points. That alone should keep the hosts in the game to the bitter end. 

PICK #2: Over 49.5 (-110)

This is a game that should feature plenty of points, especially since we’re projecting a very competitive game. As previously mentioned, Atlanta’s offense presents a tough matchup for the Bills, with Buffalo’s defense having struggled to stop every offense its faced this season (with the exception of the lowly Jets). Bijan Robinson and company are going to be able to make plays in space and as long as Michael Penix Jr. plays a clean game, the Falcons should be in scoring position throughout the contest. 

On the other side, the Bills offense has been consistently strong all season, posting 30 or more points in four of their first five games to this point. After only posting 20 points and struggling mightily in the red zone a week ago, we can expect Allen and this offense to get back on track against a Falcons defense that is average in success rate allowed and 25th in EPA per rush. Let’s take the over in a game that should produce some fireworks. 

PICK #3: Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120)

While he wasn’t quite in MVP form a week ago, Allen is once again in the midst of a great season under center. The Bills quarterback has nine touchdown passes on the year to just two interceptions, and he’s also added three touchdowns on the ground. While this Buffalo offense is generally a run-first operation, Allen has registered two or more touchdown passes in four of his five games played to this point, and we can expect that run to continue in a game where Buffalo could certainly score four or more touchdowns as a unit.