Bills vs Chiefs NFL AFC Championship Game picks

The AFC Championship was always expected to feature the Kansas City Chiefs and either the Buffalo Bills or Baltimore Ravens, with any one of those two showdowns being a blockbuster battle. Sure enough, it will be the Chiefs and the Bills after Buffalo survived a memorable matchup with Baltimore last weekend. Now Josh Allen and company get to renew their rivalry with Kansas City, which did not have too much trouble getting past the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. 

This can't-miss conference championship game, hosted at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, is set for 6:30 pm ET on CBS. With that, it’s time to break down the odds and analyze the Bills vs Chiefs best bets to make. 

Predictions 

Pick #1: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 over Buffalo Bills (-115) 

Pick #2: Over 47.5 (-110) 

Pick #3: Xavier Worthy over 49.5 receiving yards (-110) 

PICK #1: Chiefs -1.5 over Bills (-115) 

Since the start of the Allen vs Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs own a slight 4-3 advantage in the overall head-to-head series. However, that hardly tells the real story. Kansas City is 3-0 in the playoffs against Buffalo, including a victory in the 2020 AFC Championship – also played at Arrowhead Stadium. It’s hard to look in any direction other than KC when you consider its postseason success against this particular opponent – and really against all opponents in recent years.

Mahomes, 29, is already a three-time Super Bowl champion and three-time Super Bowl MVP. The Bills, on the other hand, are still seeking their first Lombardi Trophy and Allen has never played in a Super Bowl. The Chiefs may be the slight favorites due to having home-field advantage but the pressure is on the Bills. It doesn’t help that the visitors have three starters in the secondary listed as questionable (Taylor Rapp, Taron Johnson and Christian Benford) in addition to linebacker Matt Milano. 

PICK #2: Over 47.5 (-110) 

When you are dealing with two of the best quarterbacks in football, you almost always have to feel more comfortable with the over. There are some exceptions, of course, but this game is not one of them with the total set at a modest 47.5 number. For reference, 51 points were scored in the regular-season showdown between Kansas City and Buffalo. This is a matchup between a quarterback who has already cemented himself as one of the greatest of all time (Mahomes) and the presumptive 2024 NFL MVP winner (Allen). Mahomes should get plenty of support from the ground game, too, as Buffalo got crushed by Baltimore’s rushing attack to the tune of 176 yards on 30 attempts. Kareem Hunt has come on strong for Kansas City with touchdowns in three consecutive contests and at least 5.0 yards per carry in two of the last three games. On the other side of the ball, Allen led his offense to ranking second in the NFL in scoring behind only the Detroit Lions. 

PICK #3: Xavier Worthy over 49.5 receiving yards (-110) 

Kansas City was able to acquire Xavier Worthy late in the first round of last year’s NFL Draft by trading up with none other than Buffalo. It would be quite ironic if Worthy plays a big part in handing the Bills yet another playoff loss to the Chiefs. And it very well could happen. The former Texas standout was productive in the Week 11 meeting between the two teams, catching four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. He finished the regular season with 59 receptions on 98 targets for 638 yards and six scores.

Worthy has reached the 50-yard mark five times and has gained at least 45 receiving yards on three other occasions. He now faces a Buffalo defense that ranks 24th in the league against the pass (226.1 yards per game allowed) and in the bottom half in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.1). The Bills’ banged-up secondary could be even more vulnerable than usual on Sunday.