Bills @ Bengals Monday Night Preview, Pick and Props

If you take a look at the W’s listed above you’ll notice that both teams are coming in hot with the Bills riding a six-game winning streak and the Bengals have reeled off seven straight wins. Additionally, the Bengals are perfect against the spread in their last five games.

There are several playoff implications here and if the Bills win out (Patriots next week) they’ll have home-field advantage all the way through the playoffs as the No. 1 seed. And even if they lose, they could still win the AFC outright but would need some help. And if they do lose, the Bengals are one of the teams (with the Chiefs) who would have a shot at winning the AFC. Additionally, if the Bengals win tonight they clinch the AFC North Division and ensure nothing worse than being the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

It’s very interesting that the home-team 11-4 Bengals are underdogs tonight and it’s going to be hard to pass up taking them and the points. The weather is calling for rain and about 60 degrees, which is pretty mild for this time of year.

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The Bengals will be led by Joe Burrow and while he doesn’t seem to get the amount of hype and love that Josh Allen does, he’s completing 70 percent of his passes this season and has been the best quarterback in the league since Week 3. Joe Mixon has 199 carries for 787 yards and six rushing touchdowns but hasn’t scored in the last four weeks, with his last one coming way back on Nov. 6 against the Panthers. And that’s a problem against Buffalo’s fourth-ranked rushing D that gives up 104 yards and a second-ranked 17.5 points per game, behind only San Francisco. In fact, Buffalo’s defense is the reason the Bengals are home dogs tonight. 

Things are a little easier through the air though, as Buffalo is giving up 213 yards, good for 14th in the league. Tee Higgins has 73 catches for 1,022 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, Ja’Marr Chase has 79 catches for 960 yards and eight TDs and Tyler Boyd has gone for 711 yards and five TDs thus far. Tight end Hayden Hurst has caught 48 balls for 400 yards and two scores. Mixon is also good receiving out of the backfield with 55 catches for 400 yards and two more TDs. 

The Bills are led by Allen and his 4,029 yards, 32 TDs and 13 interceptions on 63.4 a percent completion rate. Devin Singletary leads the rushing attack with 170 carries for 790 yards and five TDs, but unlike Mixon, he’s reached the end zone twice in his last four games (against New England and Chicago). The Bengals have a stout run defense and come it at No. 5 giving up just 106.4 yards per game. Allen’s favorite target is Stefon Diggs with 101 catches for 1,325 yards and 10 touchdowns, followed by Gabe Davis with 45 catches for 797 yards and seven TDs. Tight end Dawson Knox has 46 catches for 504 yards and five TDs, and WR Isaiah McKenzie has 40 catches for 404 yards and four scores. The Bengals rank 21st in opponent’s passing yards per game at 225.9 and it feels like any of these receivers could hit pay dirt tonight.

This game should be a fun primetime shootout and top Oddscrowd bettor moggy_doggy like the Bengals and the points, while Larson27 likes the Bengals moneyline (-102). The Oddscrowd algorithm gives a 2.3% +EV Edge to the over of 50.5 points on Fanduel. And I’m with the crowd and the Bengals in this one.

Pick: Bengals +2.5

Prop 1: Stefon Diggs anytime TD +100 at FanDuel

Prop 2: Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD +110 at FanDuel

Prop 3: Tee Higgins anytime TD +175 at FanDuel