Bears vs Vikings NFL Week 15 MNF picks

Tonight is Monday Night Football for Week 15, and we have an NFC North divisional matchup on tap with the 4-9 Chicago Bears heading to U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings. For a team like the Vikings to be only in second place in their division with an 11-2 record is wild, but that’s where Minnesota finds itself. Meanwhile, the Bears are on a seven-game losing streak and have fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and head coach Matt Eberflus during that stretch.

The Bears are led by QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the latest NFL Draft, but it’s been a season of learning for him as he’s dealt with a lot of turnover. QB Sam Darnold leads the playoff-bound Vikings team when nobody gave him a chance after rookie J.J. McCarthy was lost for the season. Let’s dive into our Bears vs. Vikings MNF picks and best bets.

Bears vs Vikings Predictions

Pick #1: Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (-115) vs Chicago Bears

Pick #2: Over 43.5 Points (-112)

Pick #3: Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards (+150)

Pick #1: Vikings -6.5 vs Bears (-115)

We’ll begin our Bears vs Vikings picks by taking the Vikings as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Bears played the Vikings tough in their first matchup back in Week 12, only losing by a field goal at home 30-27. Of course, since then, the Bears fired Eberflus after Thanksgiving, so it’s a different team. While Caleb Williams has looked good in spurts, it’s still a very deficient team that’s lost seven straight games and running into a Vikings buzzsaw in Minneapolis.

Case in point: the Chicago Bears game last week in San Francisco, where they were averaging 1/10th of a yard per play in the middle of the second quarter. For you mathematicians out there, that’s four inches per play. The Bears ended up with four yards (12 feet) of total offense in that first half en route to a 38-13 drubbing. That doesn’t seem great! There are too many moving parts with the Bears right now against a defense coached by Brian Flores, who will send defenders at Williams with reckless abandon. The Vikings should roll the Bears here, so we’ll take the Vikings tonight.

Pick #2: Bears vs Vikings Over 43.5 Points (-112)

The next pick in our Bears vs Vikings MNF predictions is taking the Over, set at 43.5 points. The Vikings may put up most of this total as they just hung a 42-spot on the Atlanta Falcons on the strength of 5 Sam Darnold passing touchdowns. They’ve also scored 95 points in their last three games and get a Bears team on their third consecutive road game. Not a great match for Chicago.

While the passing game is the highlight for the Vikings, the Bears are susceptible to the run as they’re 22nd in defensive EPA per rush attempt and bottom-half of the league in total defensive DVOA. The Vikings should be able to put up more than enough here, with the Bears chipping in. I’m not sure this game will be close, but I like taking the Over for Monday Night Football.

Pick #3: Justin Jefferson Over 100+ Receiving Yards (+150)

Our final Bears vs Vikings pick for Monday Night Football is on WR Justin Jefferson’s alternate line prop for 100+ receiving yards. Jefferson has been on a tear this season, but when hasn’t he been? He’s the best wide receiver on Planet Earth and is already over 1,150 receiving yards this season. He’s coming off a game last week against Atlanta where he had 7 catches, 132 yards and 2 touchdowns and wasn’t even the most heralded wide receiver on his team – that was Jordan Addison, who scored 3 TDs.

With the Bears coming into town, they run the fifth-most single-high coverage (62% of dropbacks) in the NFL and have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per attempt (8.2) while in single-high coverage. As luck would have it for us, Jefferson torches single-high coverage, averaging 1.8 more yards per route against single-high than any other coverage and putting up a league-high 716 receiving yards.

This isn’t new for Jefferson, as he’s been in the top three among wide receivers for yards gained against single-high in four of the last five seasons. Taking Jefferson for MNF and bumping up his yards to 100 or more receiving yards (+150) seems to correlate well with Jefferson’s history and the Bears' willingness to use that coverage.