Bears vs. Packers Prediction, NFL Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:17 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Chicago (3-1) walks into Lambeau Field as a short road favorite over Green Bay (2-2), and it does so with its backup quarterback. Tyson Bagent is slated to run the offense for a second straight game. Caleb Williams hurt his hamstring late in the Week 2 loss to Minnesota, got back to practice on a limited basis Friday and is listed as questionable, but coach Ben Johnson named Bagent the starter on Monday and a report Saturday said that plan had not changed. The Bears haven't needed him lately: 27-7 over Philadelphia with Case Keenum in Week 3, then 23-12 over the Jets with Bagent.

Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite on Sep 29, before either team played its Week 4 game. Chicago is now -1.5 (-110) and -125 on the moneyline, and the total is 47 (over -108, under -111), down from 49.5. Injuries hit both sides in between. The Bears ruled out Kyle Monangai, their leading rusher, with a toe injury. The Packers lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to a torn ACL and receiver Jayden Reed for the season, put running back Chris Brooks on injured reserve Saturday and list guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk as doubtful.

We don't have a strong read on the side. We do have one on Green Bay's offense. The Packers rank last in the league in rushing at 58.0 yards a game and have not scored more than 22 points. Chicago has allowed 28 points over its last three games, and those three opponents ran 51, 47 and 32 plays because the Bears' offense wouldn't give the ball back. So all three picks bet on a quiet day for the Packers with the ball.

Kickoff is Sunday, Oct 11, at 1:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, on FOX. It should be sunny and in the 70s with a south wind of 12 to 13 mph. Inactive lists are not out yet.

Bears vs. Packers Predictions

• Pick #1: Tucker Kraft Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Jordan Love Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-113)
• Pick #3: Under 47 (-111)

PICK #1: Tucker Kraft Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

No tight end has had a big day against Chicago. The most any of them has gained on the Bears this season is 29 yards, by T.J. Hockenson on three catches. Carolina's tight ends combined for 62 in a game where the Panthers threw for 361. Minnesota's group had 53, Philadelphia's 13 and the Jets' 11. Overall the Bears allow 194 passing yards a game, third fewest in the league.

Kraft hasn't been clearing this number anyway. His yardage reads 65, 15, 26 and 42, under 50.5 in three of four, and the 65 took only three catches, one of them a 30-yarder. In the three games since, he has 12 catches for 83 yards, 6.9 a catch. For the season it's 15 for 148.

What makes this less than automatic is how much Green Bay uses him. He has played 82% of the snaps and drew eight and seven targets the last two weeks with Reed out. The Packers are leaning harder on two- and three-tight-end sets, and with two guards doubtful, a quick throw to Kraft is an easy way to get the ball out. But those have been short throws: eight targets became 26 yards against Atlanta, and seven became 42 at Tampa Bay. At -110 the implied chance is 52.4%, and we think the Under is better than that.

PICK #2: Jordan Love Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Love's passing totals split cleanly by game script. He threw for 387 and 312 yards on 42 and 53 attempts in the two games Green Bay lost big, 39-22 and 35-14. In the two that stayed within a score, wins of 20-17 and 17-14, he threw 29 and 30 times for 145 and 197. A Bears team favored by 1.5 points looks a lot more like the second kind of game.

The efficiency hasn't been there either. In the three games since the opener, Love is at 5.8 yards an attempt (654 yards on 112 throws), which means he'd need about 42 attempts to get to 243.5. Chicago's last three opponents threw for 143, 153 and 119 yards. Some of that is the defense. Some is a Bears offense that holds the ball for more than 36 minutes a game and left those teams with 51, 47 and 32 plays. Love is also without Reed and playing behind a line with two guards doubtful.

The price is -113, a 53.1% break-even, and there are real ways to lose. Green Bay can't run, so Love is throwing no matter what the score is. The Bears give up 13.4 yards per completion, and Bryce Young hung 361 on them in Week 1. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have each had a 100-yard game. If Chicago gets up two scores and Love throws 45 times, this ticket is in trouble.

PICK #3: Under 47 (-111)

Chicago's last three games finished with 12, 34 and 35 total points. Green Bay has scored 22, 20, 14 and 17. Five of the eight games these teams have played stayed under 47, and the total has already dropped 2.5 points from its 49.5 opener.

Neither offense is whole. The Packers have the worst rushing attack in the league. The Bears have Bagent in for Williams and are missing Monangai, who ran for 146 yards last week, and D'Andre Swift sat out Wednesday and was limited Thursday with hip and knee issues before a full practice Friday. Outside of the opener at Carolina, Swift has averaged 3.7 yards a carry. Green Bay's run defense ranks 28th at 139.2 yards a game, but that number is mostly one bad night, when Atlanta ran for 242. The lead backs for Minnesota, the Jets and Tampa Bay managed 59, 29 and 61. And Chicago moving the ball doesn't always mean Chicago scoring: the Bears gained 492 yards against the Jets and put up 23 points. Long drives that end in field goals are how this stays under.

This is the pick we like least of the three. The Bears lead the league in total yards at 429 a game, Green Bay has allowed 39 and 35 points in its two losses, and Love has thrown two touchdown passes in every game. The public leans the other way too, with 54% of bets and 57% of the money on the Over. At -111 the Under has to come in 52.6% of the time.

All three bets need the same game: Chicago's defense and its hold on the clock keep Green Bay out of a shootout. A fast Bears lead that has Love throwing all afternoon is the one result that hurts every one of them.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.