Bears vs Eagles NFL Week 13 Black Friday Best Picks

Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season brings us a Black Friday showdown on Amazon Prime, and it’s a big one. The Chicago Bears head to Lincoln Financial Field to face the Philadelphia Eagles in a matchup loaded with playoff weight. Both teams sit at 8-3 and lead their divisions, setting the stage for one of the marquee games of the long holiday weekend.

Chicago enters riding one of the hottest streaks in football, having won eight of its last nine. The Bears continue to lean on a punishing ground attack, as they rank second in the NFL in rushing. When they’re in rhythm, they have a tendency to wear opponents down as the game goes on. 

Philadelphia, meanwhile, remains a team that finds ways to win even when things aren’t clicking perfectly, sitting at 8-3 coming off a loss to Dallas. The Eagles have been more inconsistent on offense than in years past, but the talent is still there, and their playmakers on defense continue to bail them out in tight spots. At home, under the lights, and in a holiday-week primetime window, the Eagles know this is a chance to make a statement.

Kickoff is set for 3:00 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video. Expect an intense, physical matchup, one that could very well have seeding implications down the stretch in the NFC playoff picture. Let’s dig into the breakdown and highlight three bets worth considering before the ball gets kicked into the chilly November air.

Bears vs Eagles Black Friday predictions

Pick #1: Chicago Bears +7 over Philadelphia Eagles (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Over 44.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Saquon Barkley (PHI) over 77.5 rushing yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

Pick #1: Bears +7 over Eagles (-110) Click Here to Bet

Chicago catching a full touchdown feels generous for a team that’s playing its best football of the season. The Bears have leaned heavily on their run game under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, and it’s working, ranking second in the NFL in rushing offense. They’re dominating time of possession, staying in manageable downs, and keeping pressure off their young quarterback, Caleb Williams, until late in games. Williams is also doing a great job of not turning the ball over, only throwing four interceptions on the season. When a team can consistently run the ball, it travels, even into tough road environments like Philly.

The Eagles remain dangerous, but they haven’t looked quite as sharp offensively. Their passing game has been hit-or-miss, and drives have stalled more often than we’re used to seeing from them. Plus, the Bears are getting help in the secondary in the form of Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, which makes things tougher through the air for the struggling offense. Chicago’s defense has had issues with explosive runs, so that bodes well for Saquon Barkley. However, if the running game is the only thing going, that makes it hard to pull away from a team.

With how Chicago controls tempo, plus the way both teams tend to grind out possessions, seven points feels like a cushion worth taking. The Bears have been winning close games for two months and even if the Eagles pull out the win, Chicago is well-positioned to keep this within a score.

Pick #2: Over 44.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Despite both teams preferring a physical style, this number is low enough that the over deserves real consideration. Chicago’s run game is efficient and explosive, ranking as the best rushing attack in breakout runs of over 10+ yards. When the Bears get moving downhill, drives don’t take long to finish. Philadelphia should also find their share of scoring chances, especially since the Bears have struggled to contain opposing running backs all season. That’s a matchup issue the Eagles are well-equipped to exploit.

Both offenses are inconsistent, but neither is short on playmakers, and both have quarterbacks capable of extending plays when things break down. With two division leaders meeting in a national spotlight, expect aggressiveness from both sidelines. This doesn’t feel like a game where either team is playing it safe, especially with Nick Siriani and Ben Johnson roaming the sidelines.

The ground-heavy identities of both teams may actually help the over, creating long runs, short-yardage conversions, and fewer stalled drives. A final score in the mid-20s for both sides is very much in play. We project this around 27-23 in favor of the home Eagles.

Pick #3: Saquon Barkley (PHI) over 77.5 rushing yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

If there’s one individual matchup that jumps off the page, it’s this one. Chicago has been one of the league’s best rushing offenses, but one of the league’s most vulnerable rushing defenses. That’s a dangerous combination when Saquon Barkley is on the other sideline.

The Bears have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs, and they’ve struggled particularly against power runners who hit the line with speed. Barkley still has that burst, and behind this Eagles offensive line, he should see plenty of clean opportunities to reach the second level.

Philadelphia may also lean on him more heavily to settle into a rhythm offensively. If the Eagles want to avoid long third downs and keep the Bears’ rushing attack off the field, Barkley becomes the centerpiece. With volume and matchup both working in his favor, Barkley clearing 77.5 yards feels like one of the most straightforward plays on the board.